Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$775.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,588

Combined PnL+$932.5

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$157.35

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$445.59	56% 3580-2780 (6360)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$28.6	56% 28626-22433 (51059)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 80.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$76.07	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.2¢	$208.62	$314.99	+$106.37	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$239.58	$242	+$2.42	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$241.97	$230	-$11.97	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$133.5	$230	+$96.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$108.47	—	-$108.47
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.9¢	$228.1	$227.62	-$0.48	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
MO mo-money	Downavg 76.3¢	$265.22	$237.05	-$28.17	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 94.3¢	$193.8	$189.44	-$4.36	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 51¢	$108.79	$160	+$51.21	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$96.14	$122.21	+$27.07	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$62.91	$122.21	+$59.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$31.89	—	-$32.23
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$115.09	$98.54	-$16.55	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$75.09	$98.54	+$23.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$40	—	-$40
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.8¢	$83.46	$186.12	+$102.65	58% 49959-36097 (86056)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 37¢	$62.16	$168	+$105.84	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$111.3	$68.5	-$42.81	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$22.15	$68.5	+$46.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.6¢	$89.16	—	-$89.16
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$82.66	$84.83	+$2.17	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$64.3	$69.85	+$5.55	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$111.58	$23	-$88.58	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$97.78	—	-$97.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$13.8	$23	+$9.2
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$48.91	$48.19	-$0.72	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$32.3	—	-$32.3	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 66¢	$14.52	$11.26	-$3.26	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 24.3¢	$16.2	—	-$9.53	51% 19388-18619 (38007)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 40¢	$13	$32.51	+$19.5	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$10.91	—	-$10.91	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 15.5¢	$18.6	—	-$18.6	57% 9873-7375 (17248)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,453.52

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$445.59

Record

56%

3580-2780 (6360)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,831.4

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.6

Record

56%

28626-22433 (51059)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,176.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$76.07

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$208.62

Value

$314.99

PnL

+$106.37

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$239.58

Value

$242

PnL

+$2.42

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$241.97

Value

$230

PnL

-$11.97

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Down$133.558¢+$96.5

Up$108.4746.9¢-$108.47

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$228.1

Value

$227.62

PnL

-$0.48

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$265.22

Value

$237.05

PnL

-$28.17

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$193.8

Value

$189.44

PnL

-$4.36

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$108.79

Value

$160

PnL

+$51.21

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.14

Value

$122.21

PnL

+$27.07

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

Both legs:

Down$62.9151.5¢+$59.3

Up$31.8926.8¢-$32.23

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.09

Value

$98.54

PnL

-$16.55

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

Both legs:

Down$75.0976.2¢+$23.45

Up$4050¢-$40

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$83.46

Value

$186.12

PnL

+$102.65

Record

58%

49959-36097 (86056)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$62.16

Value

$168

PnL

+$105.84

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$111.3

Value

$68.5

PnL

-$42.81

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Both legs:

Down$22.1532.3¢+$46.36

Up$89.1682.6¢-$89.16

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$82.66

Value

$84.83

PnL

+$2.17

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$64.3

Value

$69.85

PnL

+$5.55

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$111.58

Value

$23

PnL

-$88.58

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.91

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$0.72

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$32.3

Value

—

PnL

-$32.3

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$14.52

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$3.26

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

—

PnL

-$9.53

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$13

Value

$32.51

PnL

+$19.5

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$10.91

Value

—

PnL

-$10.91

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

—

PnL

-$18.6

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x55b128c8...850877

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793046300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.5K

+$445.59

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$28.6

wzbbb

Down — $1.3K

+$76.07

GoodFallen

Down — $314.99

+$106.37

hoodquant

Down — $242

+$2.42

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $227.62

-$0.48

mo-money

Down — $237.05

-$28.17

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $189.44

-$4.36

FairValueMachine

Down — $160

+$51.21

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