Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$180.19

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 24 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,447

Combined PnL+$29.22

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,085

Combined PnL-$209.41

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$28.57	56% 28626-22433 (51059)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 85.9¢	$1.1K	$862.38	-$236.72	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.1¢	$758.38	$773	+$14.62	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$415.09	$419.28	+$4.19	74% 100260-35744 (136004)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$359.05	$323.52	-$35.53	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$164.2	$323.52	+$159.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$194.85	—	-$194.85
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 57.5¢	$262.31	$343.4	+$83	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$260.94	$290.06	+$29.12	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$166.22	$290.06	+$123.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.6¢	$94.72	—	-$94.72
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 87¢	$251.6	$231.87	-$19.73	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
ST std0	Downavg 70.5¢	$154.86	$147	-$7.86	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 97¢	$162.99	$168	+$5.01	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 58¢	$155.39	$251.15	+$95.76	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 32¢	$69	$100	+$31	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$48	—	-$48
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$21	$100	+$79
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$110.88	$112	+$1.12	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 57.9¢	$107.5	$102.93	-$4.57	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 34.6¢	$138.22	$40.77	-$97.45	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.6¢	$117.13	—	-$117.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$21.1	$40.77	+$19.68
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$91.7	$55.74	-$35.96	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.7¢	$47.76	$55.74	+$7.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.8¢	$43.94	—	-$43.94
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$26.5	—	-$26.5	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$53.81	$89	+$35.19	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 3.1¢	$8.76	—	-$8.76	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$34.2	—	-$34.2	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$35.3	—	-$35.3	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$88.15	—	-$88.15	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 74¢	$25.33	$34.23	+$8.9	64% 39294-22405 (61699)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49¢	$14.79	$30.18	+$15.39	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71¢	$14.2	$20	+$5.8	65% 20047-10914 (30961)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,828.43

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.57

Record

56%

28626-22433 (51059)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,099.1

Value

$862.38

PnL

-$236.72

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$758.38

Value

$773

PnL

+$14.62

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$415.09

Value

$419.28

PnL

+$4.19

Record

74%

100260-35744 (136004)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$359.05

Value

$323.52

PnL

-$35.53

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Down$164.250.8¢+$159.32

Up$194.8537.3¢-$194.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$262.31

Value

$343.4

PnL

+$83

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$260.94

Value

$290.06

PnL

+$29.12

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Down$166.2257.3¢+$123.84

Up$94.7221.6¢-$94.72

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$251.6

Value

$231.87

PnL

-$19.73

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

std0

Down

Invested

$154.86

Value

$147

PnL

-$7.86

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$162.99

Value

$168

PnL

+$5.01

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$155.39

Value

$251.15

PnL

+$95.76

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$100

PnL

+$31

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

Both legs:

Invested

$110.88

Value

$112

PnL

+$1.12

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$107.5

Value

$102.93

PnL

-$4.57

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$138.22

Value

$40.77

PnL

-$97.45

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Up$117.1334.6¢-$117.13

Down$21.151.7¢+$19.68

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.7

Value

$55.74

PnL

-$35.96

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

Both legs:

Down$47.7685.7¢+$7.98

Up$43.9422.8¢-$43.94

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

—

PnL

-$26.5

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$53.81

Value

$89

PnL

+$35.19

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

—

PnL

-$8.76

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

—

PnL

-$34.2

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$35.3

Value

—

PnL

-$35.3

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$88.15

Value

—

PnL

-$88.15

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$25.33

Value

$34.23

PnL

+$8.9

Record

64%

39294-22405 (61699)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$30.18

PnL

+$15.39

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$14.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.8

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 24 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x33c9de30...6a4fba

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793046000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.9K

+$28.57

wzbbb

Down — $862.38

-$236.72

hoodquant

Down — $773

+$14.62

BoneOhio

Down — $419.28

+$4.19

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.53

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $343.4

+$83

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$29.12

thesidehustle

Down — $231.87

-$19.73

std0

Down — $147

-$7.86

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $168

+$5.01

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