Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 47%
4 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$661.12
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $539.6 | $571.21 | +$31.6 | 49% 4731-4878 (9609) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.6¢ | $762.82 | $615.71 | -$147.11 | 56% 7167-5546 (12713) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $353.03 | $410.8 | +$57.77 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $201.11 | $410.8 | +$209.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.5¢ | $151.92 | — | -$151.92 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 56.2¢ | $245.08 | — | -$245.08 | 55% 6879-5633 (12512) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 39.4¢ | $260.63 | $467.07 | +$206.43 | 55% 13162-10567 (23729) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $76.7 | — | -$76.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.4¢ | $183.94 | $467.07 | +$283.13 | |
ST std0 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $179.67 | $194.11 | +$14.44 | 67% 52231-25955 (78186) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $90.99 | — | -$90.99 | 57% 11465-8497 (19962) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.6¢ | $30.43 | — | -$30.43 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $172.8 | $176 | +$3.2 | 60% 11663-7629 (19292) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $103.84 | $176 | +$72.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.6¢ | $68.96 | — | -$68.96 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 55.5¢ | $101.19 | — | -$101.19 | 55% 8130-6582 (14712) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $154.1 | $209.73 | +$55.63 | 56% 11950-9222 (21172) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $66 | — | -$66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $88.1 | $209.73 | +$121.63 | |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 78% 9152-2643 (11795) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $64 | — | -$64 | 57% 9873-7375 (17248) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $24.3 | — | -$24.3 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $65.82 | $40 | -$24.82 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $24.99 | — | -$24.99 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $22.09 | $37.11 | +$15.02 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $20.65 | — | -$20.65 | 55% 23059-18642 (41701) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $18.6 | $60 | +$41.4 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $14.95 | $12.79 | -$2.16 | 65% 3701-1998 (5699) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $7.32 | $24.02 | +$16.7 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.33 | — | -$2.33 | 58% 49959-36097 (86056) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $2.29 | $2.66 | +$0.37 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3580-2780 (6360) |
Invested
$539.6
Value
$571.21
PnL
+$31.6
Record
49%
4731-4878 (9609)
Invested
$762.82
Value
$615.71
PnL
-$147.11
Record
56%
7167-5546 (12713)
Invested
$353.03
Value
$410.8
PnL
+$57.77
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Both legs:
Invested
$245.08
Value
—
PnL
-$245.08
Record
55%
6879-5633 (12512)
Invested
$260.63
Value
$467.07
PnL
+$206.43
Record
55%
13162-10567 (23729)
Both legs:
Invested
$179.67
Value
$194.11
PnL
+$14.44
Record
67%
52231-25955 (78186)
Invested
$90.99
Value
—
PnL
-$90.99
Record
57%
11465-8497 (19962)
Invested
$30.43
Value
—
PnL
-$30.43
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$172.8
Value
$176
PnL
+$3.2
Record
60%
11663-7629 (19292)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$101.19
Value
—
PnL
-$101.19
Record
55%
8130-6582 (14712)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$154.1
Value
$209.73
PnL
+$55.63
Record
56%
11950-9222 (21172)
Both legs:
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
78%
9152-2643 (11795)
Invested
$64
Value
—
PnL
-$64
Record
57%
9873-7375 (17248)
Invested
$24.3
Value
—
PnL
-$24.3
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$65.82
Value
$40
PnL
-$24.82
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$24.99
Value
—
PnL
-$24.99
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.09
Value
$37.11
PnL
+$15.02
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$20.65
Value
—
PnL
-$20.65
Record
55%
23059-18642 (41701)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$41.4
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$14.95
Value
$12.79
PnL
-$2.16
Record
65%
3701-1998 (5699)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$24.02
PnL
+$16.7
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
Invested
$2.33
Value
—
PnL
-$2.33
Record
58%
49959-36097 (86056)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.37
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3580-2780 (6360)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Down — $571.21
wzbbb
Down — $615.71
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
Down — $194.11
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0