Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$232.65

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,791

Combined PnL+$249.79

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares720

Combined PnL-$482.45

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$27.42	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$295.65	—	-$295.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.4¢	$870.32	$1.1K	+$268.23
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 61.5¢	$598.5	$543.07	-$55.43	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$423.39	$551.31	+$127.92	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$182.82	—	-$182.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$240.57	$551.31	+$310.74
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 53.7¢	$127.24	$180	+$52.76	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 36.2¢	$175.51	—	-$175.51	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
machinelearned	Upavg 37.4¢	$158.52	$264.09	+$105.57	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$188.03	$172.28	-$15.75	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$107.23	—	-$107.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$80.8	$172.28	+$91.48
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 85.8¢	$292.87	$260.9	-$28.77	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.4¢	$67.5	—	-$65.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.8¢	$223.8	$260.9	+$37.1
MO mo-money	Upavg 89¢	$171.38	$104	-$67.38	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 57¢	$120.6	—	-$120.6	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
ST std0	Upavg 48.7¢	$112.01	$121.03	+$9.02	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 52.2¢	$111.44	$113	+$1.56	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$79.68	—	-$79.68	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 15.3¢	$13.81	—	-$13.81	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 76¢	$89.13	—	-$89.13	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 45¢	$100.11	$212.27	+$112.16	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$37.4	$63.54	+$26.14	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98¢	$66.12	$64.65	-$1.47	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$14.55	$25	+$10.45	12% 17680-128923 (146603)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$22.85	$46.3	+$23.45	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 23¢	$3.68	$16	+$12.32	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 37¢	$5.76	$15.57	+$9.81	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$3.45	—	-$3.45	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 27¢	$3.1	$11.48	+$8.38	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 85¢	$7.83	$9.21	+$1.38	63% 49651-29409 (79060)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,165.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.42

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Down$295.6552.6¢-$295.65

Up$870.3276.4¢+$268.23

ply-pm0

Invested

$598.5

Value

$543.07

PnL

-$55.43

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$423.39

Value

$551.31

PnL

+$127.92

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Down$182.8253.7¢-$182.82

Up$240.5743.6¢+$310.74

thesidehustle

Invested

$127.24

Value

$180

PnL

+$52.76

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$175.51

Value

—

PnL

-$175.51

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

machinelearned

Invested

$158.52

Value

$264.09

PnL

+$105.57

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.03

Value

$172.28

PnL

-$15.75

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

Both legs:

Down$107.2338.9¢-$107.23

Up$80.846.9¢+$91.48

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$292.87

Value

$260.9

PnL

-$28.77

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Down$67.531.4¢-$65.87

Up$223.885.8¢+$37.1

mo-money

Invested

$171.38

Value

$104

PnL

-$67.38

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$120.6

Value

—

PnL

-$120.6

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

std0

Invested

$112.01

Value

$121.03

PnL

+$9.02

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

antsaslyku

Invested

$111.44

Value

$113

PnL

+$1.56

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.68

Value

—

PnL

-$79.68

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.81

Value

—

PnL

-$13.81

Record

78%

9152-2643 (11795)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.13

Value

—

PnL

-$89.13

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$100.11

Value

$212.27

PnL

+$112.16

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$37.4

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$26.14

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$66.12

Value

$64.65

PnL

-$1.47

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$25

PnL

+$10.45

Record

12%

17680-128923 (146603)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$22.85

Value

$46.3

PnL

+$23.45

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$16

PnL

+$12.32

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$15.57

PnL

+$9.81

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.45

Value

—

PnL

-$3.45

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$8.38

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$7.83

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$1.38

Record

63%

49651-29409 (79060)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x482f3edf...b3a789

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793045400

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.42

ply-pm0

Up — $543.07

-$55.43

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$127.92

thesidehustle

Up — $180

+$52.76

EZTRADENL2

CTR

Down — $0

-$175.51

machinelearned

Up — $264.09

+$105.57

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.75

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.77

mo-money

Up — $104

trdyugiolkw

Down — $0