Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$636.51

Smart Money Signal

23 of 28 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,203

Combined PnL+$780.44

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$143.92

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25.08	56% 28626-22433 (51059)
MO mo-money	Upavg 72¢	$574.84	$773.36	+$198.52	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 83.2¢	$692.8	$665.56	-$27.25	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 93.8¢	$552.11	$588.35	+$36.24	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 78¢	$441.02	$431.65	-$9.37	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
NIULAI4	Upavg 81.4¢	$357.85	$423.3	+$65.46	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$364.23	$292.54	-$71.69	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.2¢	$225.85	$292.54	+$66.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 22¢	$138.39	—	-$138.39
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 75.5¢	$276.09	$360	+$83.91	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$298.68	$216.38	-$82.3	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.2¢	$184.26	$216.38	+$32.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.3¢	$114.42	—	-$114.42
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.9¢	$253.54	$488.52	+$234.99	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$247.86	$161.01	-$86.85	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$111.43	$161.01	+$49.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.8¢	$136.44	—	-$136.44
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 75.7¢	$158.98	$209.97	+$50.99	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 69.4¢	$100.09	$127.01	+$26.92	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 47.6¢	$104.7	—	-$104.7	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 81¢	$97.2	$120	+$22.8	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 71.9¢	$84.07	$100.89	+$16.82	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 69.7¢	$74.74	$107.26	+$32.52	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$63.64	$71.28	+$7.64	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 84¢	$70.97	$84.49	+$13.52	67% 22388-11204 (33592)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 86.6¢	$61.04	$44.76	-$12.32	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 97.6¢	$28.65	$29.36	+$0.71	63% 49651-29409 (79060)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$29.11	—	-$29.11	58% 11888-8697 (20585)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 87¢	$21.15	$15.34	-$5.81	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70¢	$14	$20	+$6	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$12.01	$24.02	+$12.01	58% 49959-36097 (86056)

THG.

Invested

$2,483.23

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.08

Record

56%

28626-22433 (51059)

mo-money

Invested

$574.84

Value

$773.36

PnL

+$198.52

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

ply-pm0

Invested

$692.8

Value

$665.56

PnL

-$27.25

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

hoodquant

Invested

$552.11

Value

$588.35

PnL

+$36.24

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$441.02

Value

$431.65

PnL

-$9.37

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

NIULAI4

Invested

$357.85

Value

$423.3

PnL

+$65.46

Record

78%

9152-2643 (11795)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$364.23

Value

$292.54

PnL

-$71.69

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Up$225.8577.2¢+$66.69

Down$138.3922¢-$138.39

thesidehustle

Invested

$276.09

Value

$360

PnL

+$83.91

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$298.68

Value

$216.38

PnL

-$82.3

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Up$184.2685.2¢+$32.12

Down$114.4218.3¢-$114.42

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$253.54

Value

$488.52

PnL

+$234.99

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$247.86

Value

$161.01

PnL

-$86.85

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Up$111.4369.2¢+$49.58

Down$136.4422.8¢-$136.44

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$158.98

Value

$209.97

PnL

+$50.99

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$100.09

Value

$127.01

PnL

+$26.92

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$104.7

Value

—

PnL

-$104.7

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$97.2

Value

$120

PnL

+$22.8

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

sir-upalot

Invested

$84.07

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$16.82

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

antsaslyku

Invested

$74.74

Value

$107.26

PnL

+$32.52

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

std0<$100

Invested

$63.64

Value

$71.28

PnL

+$7.64

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$70.97

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$13.52

Record

67%

22388-11204 (33592)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$61.04

Value

$44.76

PnL

-$12.32

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$28.65

Value

$29.36

PnL

+$0.71

Record

63%

49651-29409 (79060)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.11

Value

—

PnL

-$29.11

Record

58%

11888-8697 (20585)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$5.81

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$20

PnL

+$6

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$12.01

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$12.01

Record

58%

49959-36097 (86056)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 28 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x384d4d95...a3754e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793045100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.5K

+$25.08

mo-money

Up — $773.36

+$198.52

ply-pm0

Up — $665.56

-$27.25

hoodquant

Up — $588.35

+$36.24

FairValueMachine

Up — $431.65

-$9.37

NIULAI4

Up — $423.3

+$65.46

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$71.69

thesidehustle

Up — $360

+$83.91

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$82.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $488.52

+$234.99

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