Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$39.79

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 26 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,141

Combined PnL+$104.74

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$64.94

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	84% 54680-10153 (64833)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.5¢	$900.21	$844.99	-$55.22	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$399.2	$404	+$4.8	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 80¢	$262.01	$299.99	+$37.98	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
machinelearned	Downavg 82.3¢	$260.79	$304.47	+$43.68	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$260.85	$446	+$185.15	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$199.65	$446	+$246.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$61.2	—	-$61.2
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 98¢	$294	$300	+$6	49% 21579-22285 (43864)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$196.88	$198.87	+$1.99	74% 100260-35744 (136004)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.7¢	$180.92	$211	+$30.08	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 48.3¢	$149.27	$214.43	+$65.16	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$103.51	$214.43	+$110.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$45.76	—	-$45.76
GA gansinimen	Downavg 90¢	$91	$100	+$9	51% 16794-16439 (33233)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 97¢	$103.15	$103	-$0.15	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$83.09	$77.18	-$5.91	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 87¢	$76.56	$88	+$11.44	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95.8¢	$58.29	$60.38	+$2.09	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 97¢	$56.85	$51.22	-$5.63	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 90¢	$34.06	$35	+$0.94	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 25.4¢	$14.71	—	-$14.71	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$12.56	$25.4	+$12.85	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 67¢	$12.18	$18.18	+$6	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 84¢	$9.45	$11.25	+$1.8	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$19.09	—	-$19.09	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$16.2	—	-$16.2	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	51% 19388-18619 (38007)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 28.6¢	$8.06	—	-$8.06	55% 16550-13280 (29830)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

84%

54680-10153 (64833)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$900.21

Value

$844.99

PnL

-$55.22

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$399.2

Value

$404

PnL

+$4.8

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$262.01

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$37.98

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$260.79

Value

$304.47

PnL

+$43.68

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$260.85

Value

$446

PnL

+$185.15

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

Both legs:

Down$199.6544.8¢+$246.35

Up$61.251¢-$61.2

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$294

Value

$300

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

21579-22285 (43864)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$196.88

Value

$198.87

PnL

+$1.99

Record

74%

100260-35744 (136004)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$180.92

Value

$211

PnL

+$30.08

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$149.27

Value

$214.43

PnL

+$65.16

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

Both legs:

Down$103.5148.3¢+$110.92

Up$45.7652¢-$45.76

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$91

Value

$100

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

16794-16439 (33233)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$103.15

Value

$103

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$83.09

Value

$77.18

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$76.56

Value

$88

PnL

+$11.44

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$58.29

Value

$60.38

PnL

+$2.09

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$56.85

Value

$51.22

PnL

-$5.63

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$34.06

Value

$35

PnL

+$0.94

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$14.71

Value

—

PnL

-$14.71

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$12.56

Value

$25.4

PnL

+$12.85

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$12.18

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$6

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$9.45

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$19.09

Value

—

PnL

-$19.09

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

—

PnL

-$16.2

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

—

PnL

-$8.06

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 26 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6b5cd999...ce1781

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793044800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$3.01

wzbbb

Down — $844.99

-$55.22

hoodquant

Down — $404

+$4.8

thesidehustle

Down — $299.99

+$37.98

machinelearned

Down — $304.47

+$43.68

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$185.15

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$6

BoneOhio

Down — $198.87

+$1.99

MayorMamdani

Down — $211

+$30.08

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$65.16

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