Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$39.11

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,180

Combined PnL+$165.31

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares444

Combined PnL-$204.41

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.29	74% 100260-35744 (136004)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$393.18	$369.14	-$24.05	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.6¢	$279.01	$369.14	+$90.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$114.17	—	-$114.17
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 43.9¢	$326.13	$253.43	-$72.7	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$197.53	—	-$197.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$128.6	$253.43	+$124.83
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 23.5¢	$338.89	$189.79	-$149.1	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.5¢	$191.67	—	-$191.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.6¢	$147.22	$189.79	+$42.56
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$196.38	—	-$196.38	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$170.43	$157.04	-$13.4	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.9¢	$127.12	$157.04	+$29.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.8¢	$43.31	—	-$43.31
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$160.43	$152.71	-$7.72	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.9¢	$137.23	$152.71	+$15.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.6¢	$23.2	—	-$23.2
NIULAI4	Upavg 92.3¢	$166.19	$179.99	+$13.8	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 78¢	$139.85	$154.83	+$14.98	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 76¢	$142.67	$96.01	-$46.66	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76¢	$72.97	$96.01	+$23.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$69.7	—	-$69.7
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$114.86	$115.03	+$0.17	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.8¢	$81.47	$115.03	+$33.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.9¢	$33.39	—	-$33.39
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 82¢	$122.83	$145.33	+$22.49	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
machinelearned	Upavg 65.7¢	$87.44	$133	+$45.56	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$84.56	$90.52	+$5.95	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 71.2¢	$61.87	$80.15	+$18.28	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$51.73	$62.48	+$10.85	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 97.6¢	$36.71	$37.61	+$0.9	63% 49651-29409 (79060)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71¢	$31.32	$21.42	+$8.51	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 69¢	$14.62	$21.12	+$6.5	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$8.03	—	-$8.03	58% 59354-43324 (102678)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 68¢	$9.66	$14.21	+$4.55	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 97¢	$4.9	$5.05	+$0.15	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 90¢	$4.51	$5.01	+$0.5	46% 37328-43529 (80857)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19388-18619 (38007)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3580-2780 (6360)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,216.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.29

Record

74%

100260-35744 (136004)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$393.18

Value

$369.14

PnL

-$24.05

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Up$279.0175.6¢+$90.12

Down$114.1724.8¢-$114.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$326.13

Value

$253.43

PnL

-$72.7

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

Both legs:

Down$197.5343.9¢-$197.53

Up$128.650.7¢+$124.83

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$338.89

Value

$189.79

PnL

-$149.1

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Down$191.6723.5¢-$191.67

Up$147.2277.6¢+$42.56

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$196.38

Value

—

PnL

-$196.38

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$170.43

Value

$157.04

PnL

-$13.4

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Up$127.1280.9¢+$29.92

Down$43.3118.8¢-$43.31

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$160.43

Value

$152.71

PnL

-$7.72

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Up$137.2389.9¢+$15.48

Down$23.216.6¢-$23.2

NIULAI4

Invested

$166.19

Value

$179.99

PnL

+$13.8

Record

78%

9152-2643 (11795)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$139.85

Value

$154.83

PnL

+$14.98

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$142.67

Value

$96.01

PnL

-$46.66

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

Both legs:

Up$72.9776¢+$23.04

Down$69.728¢-$69.7

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$114.86

Value

$115.03

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

Both legs:

Up$81.4770.8¢+$33.56

Down$33.3921.9¢-$33.39

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$122.83

Value

$145.33

PnL

+$22.49

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

machinelearned

Invested

$87.44

Value

$133

PnL

+$45.56

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

std0<$100

Invested

$84.56

Value

$90.52

PnL

+$5.95

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$61.87

Value

$80.15

PnL

+$18.28

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$51.73

Value

$62.48

PnL

+$10.85

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$36.71

Value

$37.61

PnL

+$0.9

Record

63%

49651-29409 (79060)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$31.32

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$8.51

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.62

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$6.5

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.03

Value

—

PnL

-$8.03

Record

58%

59354-43324 (102678)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$4.55

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

46%

37328-43529 (80857)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3580-2780 (6360)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaf9b29a9...37d7af

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793044500

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $1.2K

+$12.29

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$24.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.72

NIULAI4

Up — $179.99

+$13.8

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $154.83

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded