Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$374.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,973

Combined PnL+$432.47

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares415

Combined PnL-$57.88

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$42.94	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$194.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$237.19	—	-$237.19
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$490.62	$574.85	+$84.23	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$368.59	$574.85	+$206.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$122.03	—	-$122.03
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$452.62	$464.28	+$11.65	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.1¢	$330.31	$464.28	+$133.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 23¢	$122.31	—	-$122.31
MO mo-money	Downavg 59.4¢	$341.92	$564.43	+$222.51	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 68.1¢	$295.97	$384.87	+$88.9	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.1¢	$227.77	$237	+$9.23	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$151.86	$150	-$1.86	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.9¢	$37.36	—	-$37.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$114.5	$150	+$35.5
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$183.99	$211.85	+$27.86	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.4¢	$168.19	$211.85	+$43.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 6¢	$15.8	—	-$15.8
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$194.53	$164.48	-$30.05	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.5¢	$112.7	$164.48	+$51.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$81.83	—	-$81.83
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.3¢	$187.8	$173.58	-$14.22	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$175.57	$165.69	-$6.33	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$109.17	$165.69	+$56.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.2¢	$63.1	—	-$63.1
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 76.3¢	$140.51	$166.74	+$26.23	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$140.19	$115.07	-$25.11	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.2¢	$97.99	$115.07	+$17.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$42.19	—	-$42.19
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 74.1¢	$98.71	$110.59	+$11.88	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 81¢	$81.32	$100.39	+$19.07	58% 59354-43324 (102678)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 2.1¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$61.65	$86.12	+$24.47	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 98¢	$69.06	$70.47	+$1.41	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 17.2¢	$21	—	-$21	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$30.16	$62.84	+$32.68	58% 49959-36097 (86056)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$24	—	-$24	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 7.7¢	$2.48	—	-$2.48	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 48¢	$4.8	$10	+$5.2	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 81¢	$4.75	$5.86	+$1.11	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$12	—	-$6.6	51% 19388-18619 (38007)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,296.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$42.94

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Down$1,059.3684.5¢+$194.25

Up$237.1932.6¢-$237.19

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$490.62

Value

$574.85

PnL

+$84.23

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Down$368.5964.1¢+$206.27

Up$122.0331.7¢-$122.03

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$452.62

Value

$464.28

PnL

+$11.65

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Down$330.3171.1¢+$133.96

Up$122.3123¢-$122.31

mo-money

Down

Invested

$341.92

Value

$564.43

PnL

+$222.51

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$295.97

Value

$384.87

PnL

+$88.9

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$227.77

Value

$237

PnL

+$9.23

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.86

Value

$150

PnL

-$1.86

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Up$37.368.9¢-$37.36

Down$114.576.3¢+$35.5

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.99

Value

$211.85

PnL

+$27.86

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Both legs:

Down$168.1979.4¢+$43.66

Up$15.86¢-$15.8

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$194.53

Value

$164.48

PnL

-$30.05

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Both legs:

Down$112.768.5¢+$51.79

Up$81.8326¢-$81.83

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$187.8

Value

$173.58

PnL

-$14.22

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.57

Value

$165.69

PnL

-$6.33

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

Both legs:

Down$109.1765.9¢+$56.77

Up$63.136.2¢-$63.1

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$140.51

Value

$166.74

PnL

+$26.23

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$140.19

Value

$115.07

PnL

-$25.11

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

Both legs:

Down$97.9985.2¢+$17.08

Up$42.1942.2¢-$42.19

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$98.71

Value

$110.59

PnL

+$11.88

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$81.32

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$19.07

Record

58%

59354-43324 (102678)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

—

PnL

-$3.8

Record

78%

9152-2643 (11795)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$61.65

Value

$86.12

PnL

+$24.47

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$69.06

Value

$70.47

PnL

+$1.41

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

—

PnL

-$21

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$30.16

Value

$62.84

PnL

+$32.68

Record

58%

49959-36097 (86056)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.48

Value

—

PnL

-$2.48

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.2

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$1.11

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3d2ea6e2...8f2bbe

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793044200

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Down — $564.43

+$222.51

FairValueMachine

Down — $384.87

+$88.9

hoodquant

Down — $237

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $173.58

-$14.22

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