Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$672.66

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,833

Combined PnL+$890.66

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares416

Combined PnL-$217.99

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$150.22	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 41.1¢	$347.9	$845.79	+$497.89	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 43.7¢	$337.53	$473.12	+$135.58	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$393.81	$385.08	-$8.73	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$179.08	$385.08	+$206
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$214.73	—	-$214.73
HO hoodquant	Downavg 94.9¢	$408.16	$430.06	+$21.9	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 30.1¢	$129.07	$230.42	+$101.35	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$69.39	$230.42	+$161.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.4¢	$59.68	—	-$59.68
ST std0	Downavg 60¢	$211.68	$228.41	+$16.73	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$183.41	—	-$183.41	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$154.66	$167.98	+$13.32	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$94.83	$167.98	+$73.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$59.83	—	-$59.83
BoneOhio	Downavg 44.9¢	$83.41	$185.85	+$102.44	74% 100260-35744 (136004)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$93.45	$127.25	+$33.8	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$33.2	$127.25	+$94.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$60.25	—	-$60.25
FairValueMachine	Downavg 42.9¢	$92.82	$145.69	+$52.87	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$86.79	$67.98	-$18.81	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.9¢	$27.2	—	-$27.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.7¢	$59.59	$67.98	+$8.39
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 35.5¢	$45.36	$115.1	+$69.74	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$84.43	$56.25	-$28.18	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.7¢	$36.52	—	-$36.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.2¢	$47.91	$56.25	+$8.34
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$99.21	$89.3	-$9.91	46% 37328-43529 (80857)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44¢	$60.4	$137.27	+$76.87	58% 49959-36097 (86056)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94¢	$85.53	$90.99	+$5.46	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$61.21	$72.76	+$11.56	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$54.5	$50	-$4.5	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$35.5	—	-$35.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$19	$50	+$31
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$13.15	$25.99	+$12.84	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$44.1	—	-$44.1	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 42¢	$25.8	$61.43	+$35.63	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$17.16	$13.35	-$3.81	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 14.7¢	$9.6	—	+$10.2	51% 19388-18619 (38007)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,056.05

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$150.22

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$347.9

Value

$845.79

PnL

+$497.89

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$337.53

Value

$473.12

PnL

+$135.58

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$393.81

Value

$385.08

PnL

-$8.73

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Down$179.0846.5¢+$206

Up$214.7354.9¢-$214.73

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$408.16

Value

$430.06

PnL

+$21.9

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.07

Value

$230.42

PnL

+$101.35

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

Both legs:

Down$69.3930.1¢+$161.03

Up$59.6815.4¢-$59.68

std0

Down

Invested

$211.68

Value

$228.41

PnL

+$16.73

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$183.41

Value

—

PnL

-$183.41

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.66

Value

$167.98

PnL

+$13.32

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Down$94.8356.5¢+$73.15

Up$59.8358.4¢-$59.83

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$83.41

Value

$185.85

PnL

+$102.44

Record

74%

100260-35744 (136004)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$93.45

Value

$127.25

PnL

+$33.8

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Down$33.226.1¢+$94.05

Up$60.2548.2¢-$60.25

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$92.82

Value

$145.69

PnL

+$52.87

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.79

Value

$67.98

PnL

-$18.81

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Both legs:

Up$27.214.9¢-$27.2

Down$59.5987.7¢+$8.39

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$45.36

Value

$115.1

PnL

+$69.74

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.43

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$28.18

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

Both legs:

Up$36.5227.7¢-$36.52

Down$47.9185.2¢+$8.34

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$99.21

Value

$89.3

PnL

-$9.91

Record

46%

37328-43529 (80857)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$60.4

Value

$137.27

PnL

+$76.87

Record

58%

49959-36097 (86056)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$85.53

Value

$90.99

PnL

+$5.46

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$61.21

Value

$72.76

PnL

+$11.56

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$54.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.5

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

Both legs:

Invested

$13.15

Value

$25.99

PnL

+$12.84

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$44.1

Value

—

PnL

-$44.1

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$25.8

Value

$61.43

PnL

+$35.63

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$17.16

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$3.81

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

—

PnL

+$10.2

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x96c3fc43...2e86c6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793043900

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $1.9K

-$150.22

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $845.79

+$497.89

GoodFallen

Down — $473.12

+$135.58

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.73

hoodquant

Down — $430.06

+$21.9

antsaslyku

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$101.35

std0

Down — $228.41

+$16.73

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

-$183.41

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.32

BoneOhio

Down — $185.85

+$102.44

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