Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$157.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,847

Combined PnL+$565.11

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL-$407.23

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NIULAI4	Downavg 70.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$78.26	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 91.8¢	$986.57	$1.1K	+$88.26	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.7¢	$806.8	$843.64	+$36.84	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
MO mo-money	Downavg 76.5¢	$607.19	$752.61	+$145.42	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.9¢	$696.4	$709.51	+$13.12	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 59.5¢	$352.38	$547.24	+$194.85	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.9¢	$445.52	$454.38	+$8.86	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.6¢	$351.61	$342.33	-$5.58	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 70.4¢	$308.12	$353.12	+$45	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 70¢	$356.51	$259.13	-$97.38	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 75.9¢	$328.25	$265.54	-$62.71	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 62.4¢	$193.24	$240.39	+$47.14	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 66.5¢	$169.03	$206.36	+$37.33	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$159.9	—	-$159.9	58% 49959-36097 (86056)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 76¢	$141.54	$165.79	+$24.25	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
Atomforge	Downavg 96.5¢	$153.06	$151.31	-$1.75	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 39.1¢	$102	—	-$102	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
ST std0	Downavg 78.9¢	$123.15	$128.97	+$5.82	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.4¢	$103.41	$114.07	+$10.65	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$178.32	$25	-$153.32	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.3¢	$158.07	—	-$158.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$20.25	$25	+$4.75
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$50.16	—	-$50.16	12% 17680-128923 (146603)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$24	—	-$24	51% 16794-16439 (33233)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$39.49	$31.05	-$8.44	63% 49651-29409 (79060)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90.7¢	$54.6	$60.21	+$5.61	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 90¢	$29.7	$33	+$3.3	49% 76371-79329 (155700)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$1,018.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$78.26

Record

78%

9152-2643 (11795)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$986.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.26

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$806.8

Value

$843.64

PnL

+$36.84

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$607.19

Value

$752.61

PnL

+$145.42

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$696.4

Value

$709.51

PnL

+$13.12

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$352.38

Value

$547.24

PnL

+$194.85

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$445.52

Value

$454.38

PnL

+$8.86

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$351.61

Value

$342.33

PnL

-$5.58

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$308.12

Value

$353.12

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$356.51

Value

$259.13

PnL

-$97.38

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$328.25

Value

$265.54

PnL

-$62.71

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$193.24

Value

$240.39

PnL

+$47.14

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$169.03

Value

$206.36

PnL

+$37.33

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$159.9

Value

—

PnL

-$159.9

Record

58%

49959-36097 (86056)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$141.54

Value

$165.79

PnL

+$24.25

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$153.06

Value

$151.31

PnL

-$1.75

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$102

Value

—

PnL

-$102

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

std0

Down

Invested

$123.15

Value

$128.97

PnL

+$5.82

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$103.41

Value

$114.07

PnL

+$10.65

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$178.32

Value

$25

PnL

-$153.32

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Up$158.0712.3¢-$158.07

Down$20.2581¢+$4.75

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$50.16

Value

—

PnL

-$50.16

Record

12%

17680-128923 (146603)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

51%

16794-16439 (33233)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$39.49

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$8.44

Record

63%

49651-29409 (79060)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$54.6

Value

$60.21

PnL

+$5.61

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$29.7

Value

$33

PnL

+$3.3

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe67e1bd9...7208ae

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793043600

Traders in this Market

NIULAI4

Down — $1.1K

+$78.26

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$88.26

ply-pm0

Down — $843.64

+$36.84

mo-money

Down — $752.61

+$145.42

GoodFallen

Down — $709.51

+$13.12

antsaslyku

Down — $547.24

+$194.85

EZTRADENL2

Down — $454.38

+$8.86

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $342.33

-$5.58

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $353.12

+$45

wzbbb

Down — $259.13

-$97.38

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