Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$94.12

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,264

Combined PnL+$213.5

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares704

Combined PnL-$119.38

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$2.27	84% 54680-10153 (64833)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.8¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$32.9	56% 28626-22433 (51059)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.39	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$237.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.5¢	$144.13	—	-$144.13
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 91¢	$393.4	$312.71	-$80.69	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.2¢	$108.84	—	-$108.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$284.57	$312.71	+$28.14
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 83¢	$321.65	$360	+$38.35	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$298.8	$360	+$61.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.3¢	$22.85	—	-$22.85
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$179.75	$297.29	+$117.53	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.1¢	$31.68	—	-$31.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$148.08	$297.29	+$149.21
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 88.6¢	$277.01	$266.85	-$10.17	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.7¢	$40.68	—	-$40.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.6¢	$236.34	$266.85	+$30.51
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$163.69	$176.9	+$13.2	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.5¢	$32.88	—	-$32.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$130.82	$176.9	+$46.08
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$71.64	$72.4	+$0.76	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$197.13	$192	-$5.13	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$39.83	—	-$39.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$157.3	$192	+$34.7
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$189.88	$125	-$64.88	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$126.53	—	-$126.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$63.35	$125	+$61.65
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$166.41	$169.38	+$2.97	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.6¢	$156.77	$169.38	+$12.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.1¢	$9.64	—	-$9.64
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 94.5¢	$283.65	$300	+$16.35	49% 21579-22285 (43864)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$145.01	$104.4	-$40.61	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$85.81	—	-$85.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$59.2	$104.4	+$45.2
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$2.84	—	-$2.84	46% 37328-43529 (80857)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 68.6¢	$146.28	$209.6	+$63.32	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 28.9¢	$66.56	—	-$66.56	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 79.1¢	$127.74	$155.49	+$27.75	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 90¢	$58.16	$63.33	+$5.18	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$1.16	—	-$1.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 90¢	$57	$63.33	+$6.33
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$104.31	$125.45	+$21.14	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$101.67	$125.45	+$23.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 6¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.9¢	$77.3	$100.43	+$23.13	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 94.1¢	$61.43	$60.31	-$1.12	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7¢	$4.69	—	-$4.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 94.1¢	$56.74	$60.31	+$3.57
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$101.97	$103	+$1.03	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 94¢	$94	$100	+$6	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$21	—	-$21	51% 16794-16439 (33233)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,267.1

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.27

Record

84%

54680-10153 (64833)

THG.

Invested

$2,819.1

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$32.9

Record

56%

28626-22433 (51059)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,661.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.39

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Up$1,517.3486.5¢+$237.52

Down$144.1315.5¢-$144.13

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$393.4

Value

$312.71

PnL

-$80.69

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

Both legs:

Down$108.8420.2¢-$108.84

Up$284.5791¢+$28.14

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$321.65

Value

$360

PnL

+$38.35

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Both legs:

Up$298.883¢+$61.2

Down$22.857.3¢-$22.85

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$179.75

Value

$297.29

PnL

+$117.53

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

Both legs:

Down$31.689.1¢-$31.68

Up$148.0849.8¢+$149.21

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$277.01

Value

$266.85

PnL

-$10.17

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

Both legs:

Down$40.6812.7¢-$40.68

Up$236.3488.6¢+$30.51

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$163.69

Value

$176.9

PnL

+$13.2

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

Both legs:

Down$32.8810.5¢-$32.88

Up$130.8274¢+$46.08

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$71.64

Value

$72.4

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$197.13

Value

$192

PnL

-$5.13

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Down$39.8319.4¢-$39.83

Up$157.381.9¢+$34.7

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$189.88

Value

$125

PnL

-$64.88

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

Both legs:

Down$126.5350.4¢-$126.53

Up$63.3550.7¢+$61.65

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$166.41

Value

$169.38

PnL

+$2.97

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

Both legs:

Up$156.7792.6¢+$12.61

Down$9.646.1¢-$9.64

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$283.65

Value

$300

PnL

+$16.35

Record

49%

21579-22285 (43864)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.01

Value

$104.4

PnL

-$40.61

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

Both legs:

Down$85.8145.6¢-$85.81

Up$59.256.7¢+$45.2

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.84

Value

—

PnL

-$2.84

Record

46%

37328-43529 (80857)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$146.28

Value

$209.6

PnL

+$63.32

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$66.56

Value

—

PnL

-$66.56

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$127.74

Value

$155.49

PnL

+$27.75

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$58.16

Value

$63.33

PnL

+$5.18

Record

65%

119380-63148 (182528)

Both legs:

Down$1.161¢-$1.16

Up$5790¢+$6.33

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$104.31

Value

$125.45

PnL

+$21.14

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Up$101.6781¢+$23.78

Down$2.646¢-$2.64

GoodFallen

Invested

$77.3

Value

$100.43

PnL

+$23.13

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$61.43

Value

$60.31

PnL

-$1.12

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

Both legs:

Down$4.697¢-$4.69

Up$56.7494.1¢+$3.57

MayorMamdani

Invested

$101.97

Value

$103

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$94

Value

$100

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21

Value

—

PnL

-$21

Record

51%

16794-16439 (33233)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x71993355...dbd7af

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793043300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $2.3K

+$2.27

THG.

Up — $2.9K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$117.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $72.4

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded