Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$690.96

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,475

Combined PnL+$889.01

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,732

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 51.7¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$440	56% 7154-5537 (12691)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 51.2¢	$998.88	$1.1K	+$111.62	55% 13162-10566 (23728)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 51.6¢	$441.3	$544.18	+$102.88	56% 11940-9215 (21155)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.7¢	$616.45	$536.72	-$79.73	49% 4719-4873 (9592)
NIULAI4	Upavg 64.6¢	$421.64	$492.25	+$70.62	78% 9146-2642 (11788)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 33.2¢	$175.89	—	-$175.89	55% 8118-6577 (14695)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 60¢	$447.06	$450.07	+$3.01	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$270.21	$450.07	+$179.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$176.85	—	-$176.85
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 57¢	$415.74	$378.59	-$33.3	60% 11651-7625 (19276)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Downavg 76.9¢	$176.85	—	-$176.85	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 41.3¢	$254.35	—	-$254.35	55% 6876-5621 (12497)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$216.37	$230.5	+$14.14	55% 48280-39244 (87524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$112.37	$230.5	+$118.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$104	—	-$104
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 30.1¢	$501.56	—	-$501.56	66% 108603-55064 (163667)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 72¢	$240.16	$136.67	-$103.49	55% 23048-18636 (41684)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$148.49	—	-$148.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.1¢	$91.67	$136.67	+$45
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 33.2¢	$112.12	—	-$112.12	57% 9862-7369 (17231)
ohioism	Upavg 99¢	$148.58	$150.08	+$1.5	64% 39210-22344 (61554)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$131.4	$132.53	+$1.12	67% 51830-25706 (77536)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$77.02	—	-$77.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$54.39	$132.53	+$78.14
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 99¢	$145.8	$120	-$25.8	66% 118135-62194 (180329)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 87.4¢	$146.07	$88	-$58.07	55% 41545-33964 (75509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.4¢	$88.27	—	-$88.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$57.8	$88	+$30.2
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 69.8¢	$111.03	—	-$111.03	76% 70725-22108 (92833)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$96.83	—	-$96.83	55% 16513-13257 (29770)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50¢	$74.5	$149	+$74.5	59% 36785-26074 (62859)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$96.6	—	-$96.6	12% 17582-126512 (144094)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$35.64	$36	+$0.36	93% 21707-1689 (23396)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 30¢	$90	$299.99	+$209.99	49% 21480-22194 (43674)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 75¢	$13.95	—	-$13.95	65% 19990-10879 (30869)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,177.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$440

Record

56%

7154-5537 (12691)

GoodFallen

Invested

$998.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.62

Record

55%

13162-10566 (23728)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$441.3

Value

$544.18

PnL

+$102.88

Record

56%

11940-9215 (21155)

ply-pm0

Invested

$616.45

Value

$536.72

PnL

-$79.73

Record

49%

4719-4873 (9592)

NIULAI4

Invested

$421.64

Value

$492.25

PnL

+$70.62

Record

78%

9146-2642 (11788)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$175.89

Value

—

PnL

-$175.89

Record

55%

8118-6577 (14695)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$447.06

Value

$450.07

PnL

+$3.01

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Both legs:

Up$270.2160¢+$179.86

Down$176.8554.6¢-$176.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$415.74

Value

$378.59

PnL

-$33.3

Record

60%

11651-7625 (19276)

thesidehustleCTR

Down

Invested

$176.85

Value

—

PnL

-$176.85

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$254.35

Value

—

PnL

-$254.35

Record

55%

6876-5621 (12497)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$216.37

Value

$230.5

PnL

+$14.14

Record

55%

48280-39244 (87524)

Both legs:

Up$112.3748.7¢+$118.14

Down$10458.2¢-$104

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$501.56

Value

—

PnL

-$501.56

Record

66%

108603-55064 (163667)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$240.16

Value

$136.67

PnL

-$103.49

Record

55%

23048-18636 (41684)

Both legs:

Down$148.4972¢-$148.49

Up$91.6767.1¢+$45

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$112.12

Value

—

PnL

-$112.12

Record

57%

9862-7369 (17231)

ohioism

Invested

$148.58

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$1.5

Record

64%

39210-22344 (61554)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.4

Value

$132.53

PnL

+$1.12

Record

67%

51830-25706 (77536)

Both legs:

Down$77.0262.8¢-$77.02

Up$54.3941¢+$78.14

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$145.8

Value

$120

PnL

-$25.8

Record

66%

118135-62194 (180329)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.07

Value

$88

PnL

-$58.07

Record

55%

41545-33964 (75509)

Both legs:

Down$88.2787.4¢-$88.27

Up$57.865.7¢+$30.2

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$111.03

Value

—

PnL

-$111.03

Record

76%

70725-22108 (92833)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.83

Value

—

PnL

-$96.83

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$74.5

Value

$149

PnL

+$74.5

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.6

Value

—

PnL

-$96.6

Record

12%

17582-126512 (144094)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$35.64

Value

$36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

93%

21707-1689 (23396)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$90

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$209.99

Record

49%

21480-22194 (43674)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.95

Value

—

PnL

-$13.95

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xef989a56...76e3b1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793043000

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $1.6K

+$440

GoodFallen

Up — $1.1K

+$111.62

FairValueMachine

Up — $544.18

+$102.88

ply-pm0

Up — $536.72

-$79.73

NIULAI4

Up — $492.25

machinelearned

Down — $0

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $378.59

-$33.3

thesidehustle

CTR

Down — $0

-$176.85

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$254.35

Trade on Polymarket