Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$519.87
Smart Money Signal
21 of 29 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 stringXXCTR | Upavg 47.6¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 50% 72-73 (145) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 86.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.52 | 56% 7154-5537 (12691) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57¢ | $328.08 | $402.13 | +$74.05 | 55% 13162-10566 (23728) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 54.6¢ | $196.49 | $359.83 | +$163.34 | 66% 108603-55064 (163667) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 59.1¢ | $221.97 | $327.98 | +$106.02 | 56% 11940-9215 (21155) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 42¢ | $210 | $500 | +$290 | 55% 48280-39244 (87524) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $192.09 | $244.29 | +$52.2 | 49% 4719-4873 (9592) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $259.06 | $264.35 | +$5.29 | 93% 21707-1689 (23396) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 54¢ | $162 | — | -$162 | 49% 21480-22194 (43674) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $112.62 | $174.71 | +$62.09 | 57% 11465-8497 (19962) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 75.6¢ | $161.45 | $138.2 | -$23.25 | 55% 8118-6577 (14695) |
ST std0 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $102.12 | $100.96 | -$1.16 | 67% 51830-25706 (77536) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 97¢ | $112.39 | $103 | -$9.39 | 49% 74849-77671 (152520) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $74.31 | $87.52 | +$13.2 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $64.82 | $79.44 | +$14.61 | 55% 23048-18636 (41684) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 51.9¢ | $77.08 | $130 | +$52.92 | 76% 70725-22108 (92833) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $65.07 | $76.69 | +$11.62 | 60% 11651-7625 (19276) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $36.7 | $53.06 | +$16.36 | 55% 6876-5621 (12497) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $23.99 | $53.06 | +$29.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.9¢ | $12.71 | — | -$12.71 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 61¢ | $61.18 | $100.29 | +$39.11 | 58% 11877-8681 (20558) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $57.6 | $60 | +$2.4 | 66% 118135-62194 (180329) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $27.59 | $56.31 | +$28.72 | 59% 36785-26074 (62859) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $26.76 | — | -$26.76 | 65% 19990-10879 (30869) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $14.95 | — | -$14.95 | 52% 87251-81446 (168697) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $12.6 | $21 | +$8.4 | 55% 41545-33964 (75509) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 56% 2128-1663 (3791) |
stringXXCTRInvested
$1,200
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
50%
72-73 (145)
Invested
$1,117.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.52
Record
56%
7154-5537 (12691)
Invested
$328.08
Value
$402.13
PnL
+$74.05
Record
55%
13162-10566 (23728)
Invested
$196.49
Value
$359.83
PnL
+$163.34
Record
66%
108603-55064 (163667)
FairValueMachineInvested
$221.97
Value
$327.98
PnL
+$106.02
Record
56%
11940-9215 (21155)
Invested
$210
Value
$500
PnL
+$290
Record
55%
48280-39244 (87524)
Invested
$192.09
Value
$244.29
PnL
+$52.2
Record
49%
4719-4873 (9592)
Invested
$259.06
Value
$264.35
PnL
+$5.29
Record
93%
21707-1689 (23396)
Invested
$162
Value
—
PnL
-$162
Record
49%
21480-22194 (43674)
Invested
$112.62
Value
$174.71
PnL
+$62.09
Record
57%
11465-8497 (19962)
machinelearnedInvested
$161.45
Value
$138.2
PnL
-$23.25
Record
55%
8118-6577 (14695)
Invested
$102.12
Value
$100.96
PnL
-$1.16
Record
67%
51830-25706 (77536)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$112.39
Value
$103
PnL
-$9.39
Record
49%
74849-77671 (152520)
Invested
$74.31
Value
$87.52
PnL
+$13.2
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$64.82
Value
$79.44
PnL
+$14.61
Record
55%
23048-18636 (41684)
Invested
$77.08
Value
$130
PnL
+$52.92
Record
76%
70725-22108 (92833)
Invested
$65.07
Value
$76.69
PnL
+$11.62
Record
60%
11651-7625 (19276)
Invested
$36.7
Value
$53.06
PnL
+$16.36
Record
55%
6876-5621 (12497)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.18
Value
$100.29
PnL
+$39.11
Record
58%
11877-8681 (20558)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$2.4
Record
66%
118135-62194 (180329)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$56.31
PnL
+$28.72
Record
59%
36785-26074 (62859)
Invested
$26.76
Value
—
PnL
-$26.76
Record
65%
19990-10879 (30869)
Invested
$14.95
Value
—
PnL
-$14.95
Record
52%
87251-81446 (168697)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.6
Value
$21
PnL
+$8.4
Record
55%
41545-33964 (75509)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
56%
2128-1663 (3791)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
stringXX
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $1.1K
GoodFallen
Down — $402.13
antsaslyku
Down — $359.83
FairValueMachine
Down — $327.98
mo-money
Down — $500
ply-pm0
Down — $244.29
hoodquant
Down — $264.35
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
Down — $174.71