Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 22%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$676.16

Smart Money Signal

7 of 22 top traders (32%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,503

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,408

Combined PnL+$764.48

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$71.75	49% 4719-4873 (9592)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$516.47	—	-$516.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.7¢	$628.56	$1.2K	+$588.22
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 11.6¢	$284.57	—	-$284.57	66% 108603-55064 (163667)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$902.45	$1.2K	+$250.25	55% 13162-10566 (23728)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$412.41	—	-$412.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$490.04	$1.2K	+$662.67
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$62.45	56% 7154-5537 (12691)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$287.07	—	-$287.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$736.73	$1.1K	+$349.53
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 17.2¢	$234.26	—	-$234.26	55% 8118-6577 (14695)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$27.96	93% 21707-1689 (23396)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$694.54	$620	-$74.55	78% 9146-2642 (11788)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.3¢	$212.93	—	-$212.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.7¢	$481.61	$620	+$138.39
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 39.7¢	$380.86	$652.57	+$271.71	56% 11940-9215 (21155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$259.02	$652.57	+$393.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$121.84	—	-$121.84
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.2¢	$295.38	—	-$295.38	59% 36785-26074 (62859)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 44.1¢	$220.99	—	-$220.99	76% 70725-22108 (92833)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$218.14	$180	-$38.14	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$105.34	—	-$105.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.7¢	$112.8	$180	+$67.2
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 35.7¢	$117.85	—	-$117.85	60% 11651-7625 (19276)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 44.2¢	$139.75	—	-$139.75	55% 23048-18636 (41684)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$145.95	$143	-$2.95	67% 51830-25706 (77536)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$72.2	—	-$72.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$73.75	$143	+$69.25
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 5.4¢	$14.84	—	-$14.84	52% 87251-81446 (168697)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 54.8¢	$54.8	$100	+$45.2	57% 9862-7369 (17231)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$56.99	—	-$56.99	51% 16749-16400 (33149)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$51.94	$87.11	+$35.17	55% 6876-5621 (12497)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$35.49	—	-$35.49	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$29.71	—	-$29.71	55% 41545-33964 (75509)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$4.17	—	-$4.17	63% 47924-28546 (76470)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$3.78	—	-$3.78	59% 16265-11214 (27479)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$0.35	—	-$0.35	66% 118135-62194 (180329)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 67¢	$5.04	$7.52	+$2.48	65% 3695-1997 (5692)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	55% 16513-13257 (29770)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,145.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.75

Record

49%

4719-4873 (9592)

Both legs:

Down$516.4735.5¢-$516.47

Up$628.5651.7¢+$588.22

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$284.57

Value

—

PnL

-$284.57

Record

66%

108603-55064 (163667)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$902.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$250.25

Record

55%

13162-10566 (23728)

Both legs:

Down$412.4146.7¢-$412.41

Up$490.0442.5¢+$662.67

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,023.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$62.45

Record

56%

7154-5537 (12691)

Both legs:

Down$287.0750.9¢-$287.07

Up$736.7367.8¢+$349.53

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$234.26

Value

—

PnL

-$234.26

Record

55%

8118-6577 (14695)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,185.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$27.96

Record

93%

21707-1689 (23396)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$694.54

Value

$620

PnL

-$74.55

Record

78%

9146-2642 (11788)

Both legs:

Down$212.9334.3¢-$212.93

Up$481.6177.7¢+$138.39

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$380.86

Value

$652.57

PnL

+$271.71

Record

56%

11940-9215 (21155)

Both legs:

Up$259.0239.7¢+$393.55

Down$121.8447.1¢-$121.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$295.38

Value

—

PnL

-$295.38

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$220.99

Value

—

PnL

-$220.99

Record

76%

70725-22108 (92833)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$218.14

Value

$180

PnL

-$38.14

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Both legs:

Down$105.3442.9¢-$105.34

Up$112.862.7¢+$67.2

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$117.85

Value

—

PnL

-$117.85

Record

60%

11651-7625 (19276)

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$139.75

Value

—

PnL

-$139.75

Record

55%

23048-18636 (41684)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$145.95

Value

$143

PnL

-$2.95

Record

67%

51830-25706 (77536)

Both legs:

Invested

$14.84

Value

—

PnL

-$14.84

Record

52%

87251-81446 (168697)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$54.8

Value

$100

PnL

+$45.2

Record

57%

9862-7369 (17231)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.99

Value

—

PnL

-$56.99

Record

51%

16749-16400 (33149)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$51.94

Value

$87.11

PnL

+$35.17

Record

55%

6876-5621 (12497)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.49

Value

—

PnL

-$35.49

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.71

Value

—

PnL

-$29.71

Record

55%

41545-33964 (75509)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.17

Value

—

PnL

-$4.17

Record

63%

47924-28546 (76470)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.78

Value

—

PnL

-$3.78

Record

59%

16265-11214 (27479)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.35

Value

—

PnL

-$0.35

Record

66%

118135-62194 (180329)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$2.48

Record

65%

3695-1997 (5692)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

Smart Money Signal

7 of 22 top traders (32%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0a3dd760...e18814

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793042100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $2.2K

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $0