Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$-3.1K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 26 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 56¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 55% 13162-10566 (23728) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 23¢ | $673.99 | — | -$673.99 | 49% 4719-4873 (9592) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 57.2¢ | $714.85 | $627.64 | -$87.21 | 56% 7154-5537 (12691) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $606.52 | $592.76 | -$13.76 | 78% 9146-2642 (11788) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 57.3¢ | $780.49 | — | -$780.49 | 56% 11940-9215 (21155) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 58.6¢ | $260.1 | $334 | +$73.9 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 50.8¢ | $203.91 | $268.94 | +$65.03 | 55% 23048-18636 (41684) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 49¢ | $176.45 | $225.11 | +$48.66 | 55% 8118-6577 (14695) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 38.3¢ | $168.95 | — | -$168.95 | 76% 70725-22108 (92833) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 25.3¢ | $87.6 | $190 | +$102.4 | 57% 9862-7369 (17231) |
ST std0CTR | Downavg 84.3¢ | $192.99 | — | -$192.99 | 67% 51830-25706 (77536) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 64¢ | $192 | $300 | +$108 | 49% 21480-22194 (43674) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 44.9¢ | $135.25 | — | -$135.25 | 59% 36785-26074 (62859) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 42.4¢ | $186.28 | — | -$186.28 | 57% 11465-8497 (19962) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $184.5 | $32.6 | -$151.9 | 66% 108603-55064 (163667) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46¢ | $15 | $32.6 | +$17.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.9¢ | $169.5 | — | -$169.5 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93.1¢ | $56.44 | $60.62 | +$4.18 | 66% 118135-62194 (180329) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $60.15 | — | -$60.15 | 55% 16513-13257 (29770) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $49.79 | — | -$42.59 | 65% 19990-10879 (30869) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $31.59 | $26.84 | -$4.75 | 63% 47924-28546 (76470) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $7.02 | $54 | +$46.98 | 64% 39210-22344 (61554) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $10.75 | $39.64 | +$28.89 | 49% 74849-77671 (152520) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.7¢ | $13.45 | — | -$13.45 | 52% 87251-81446 (168697) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 30.8¢ | $8.09 | $26.3 | +$18.21 | 59% 16265-11214 (27479) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $6.16 | — | -$6.16 | 65% 3695-1997 (5692) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $36.4 | — | -$36.4 | 55% 41545-33964 (75509) |
Invested
$1,166.61
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
55%
13162-10566 (23728)
Invested
$673.99
Value
—
PnL
-$673.99
Record
49%
4719-4873 (9592)
Invested
$714.85
Value
$627.64
PnL
-$87.21
Record
56%
7154-5537 (12691)
NIULAI4Invested
$606.52
Value
$592.76
PnL
-$13.76
Record
78%
9146-2642 (11788)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$780.49
Value
—
PnL
-$780.49
Record
56%
11940-9215 (21155)
Invested
$260.1
Value
$334
PnL
+$73.9
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$203.91
Value
$268.94
PnL
+$65.03
Record
55%
23048-18636 (41684)
machinelearnedInvested
$176.45
Value
$225.11
PnL
+$48.66
Record
55%
8118-6577 (14695)
Invested
$168.95
Value
—
PnL
-$168.95
Record
76%
70725-22108 (92833)
Invested
$87.6
Value
$190
PnL
+$102.4
Record
57%
9862-7369 (17231)
Invested
$192.99
Value
—
PnL
-$192.99
Record
67%
51830-25706 (77536)
Invested
$192
Value
$300
PnL
+$108
Record
49%
21480-22194 (43674)
Invested
$135.25
Value
—
PnL
-$135.25
Record
59%
36785-26074 (62859)
Invested
$186.28
Value
—
PnL
-$186.28
Record
57%
11465-8497 (19962)
Invested
$184.5
Value
$32.6
PnL
-$151.9
Record
66%
108603-55064 (163667)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.44
Value
$60.62
PnL
+$4.18
Record
66%
118135-62194 (180329)
Invested
$60.15
Value
—
PnL
-$60.15
Record
55%
16513-13257 (29770)
Invested
$49.79
Value
—
PnL
-$42.59
Record
65%
19990-10879 (30869)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$31.59
Value
$26.84
PnL
-$4.75
Record
63%
47924-28546 (76470)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
$54
PnL
+$46.98
Record
64%
39210-22344 (61554)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$10.75
Value
$39.64
PnL
+$28.89
Record
49%
74849-77671 (152520)
Invested
$13.45
Value
—
PnL
-$13.45
Record
52%
87251-81446 (168697)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$8.09
Value
$26.3
PnL
+$18.21
Record
59%
16265-11214 (27479)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$6.16
Value
—
PnL
-$6.16
Record
65%
3695-1997 (5692)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$36.4
Value
—
PnL
-$36.4
Record
55%
41545-33964 (75509)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $627.64
NIULAI4
Up — $592.76
FairValueMachine
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
Up — $334
sir-upalot
Up — $268.94
machinelearned
Up — $225.11
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
Up — $190