Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$454.23

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,095

Combined PnL+$129.67

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,866

Combined PnL-$583.9

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$3.34	56% 3579-2780 (6359)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.21	56% 28172-21919 (50091)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 75.3¢	$779.27	$661.24	-$118.02	56% 7154-5537 (12691)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$685.79	$737.52	+$51.73	55% 13162-10566 (23728)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$415.51	$737.52	+$322.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.3¢	$270.29	—	-$270.29
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$421.01	$350.87	-$70.14	56% 11940-9215 (21155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$229.59	—	-$229.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$191.42	$350.87	+$159.45
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.2¢	$346.29	$340.97	-$5.32	49% 4719-4873 (9592)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$226.84	$200.48	-$26.36	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$79.98	—	-$79.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.3¢	$146.86	$200.48	+$53.62
ST std0	Downavg 70.1¢	$277.17	$275.2	-$1.98	67% 51830-25706 (77536)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 73.4¢	$224.2	$250	+$25.79	55% 23048-18636 (41684)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$38.39	—	-$38.39	55% 48280-39244 (87524)
machinelearned	Downavg 83.8¢	$208.44	$226.75	+$18.31	55% 8118-6577 (14695)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 90.1¢	$217.71	$207.43	-$10.28	55% 41545-33964 (75509)
BO bosona	Downavg 73.9¢	$172.91	$193.47	+$20.55	56% 47445-37975 (85420)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 38¢	$210.15	—	-$210.15	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 67.9¢	$250.32	$368.84	+$118.52	76% 70725-22108 (92833)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$176.46	$311.53	+$135.07	66% 108603-55064 (163667)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$134.43	$311.53	+$177.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$42.03	—	-$42.03
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 33.2¢	$105.6	—	-$105.6	49% 21480-22194 (43674)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$165.06	$165.04	-$0.03	55% 6876-5621 (12497)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$139.18	$165.04	+$25.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$25.88	—	-$25.88
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 73¢	$151.84	$208	+$56.16	12% 17582-126512 (144094)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 90¢	$90.13	$100	+$9.87	51% 16749-16400 (33149)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$33.55	—	-$33.55	64% 39210-22344 (61554)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98¢	$93.05	$85.87	-$7.18	66% 118135-62194 (180329)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 93.9¢	$63.48	$44.45	-$18.78	60% 11651-7625 (19276)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.7¢	$20.93	—	-$21.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.9¢	$41.76	$44.45	+$2.69
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 91¢	$62.4	$60	-$2.4	57% 9862-7369 (17231)
└ Up leg	Upavg 13¢	$7.8	—	-$7.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$54.6	$60	+$5.4
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$57.59	—	-$57.59	59% 36785-26074 (62859)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,066.92

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$3.34

Record

56%

3579-2780 (6359)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,011.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.21

Record

56%

28172-21919 (50091)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$779.27

Value

$661.24

PnL

-$118.02

Record

56%

7154-5537 (12691)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$685.79

Value

$737.52

PnL

+$51.73

Record

55%

13162-10566 (23728)

Both legs:

Down$415.5156.3¢+$322.02

Up$270.2946.3¢-$270.29

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$421.01

Value

$350.87

PnL

-$70.14

Record

56%

11940-9215 (21155)

Both legs:

Up$229.5946.5¢-$229.59

Down$191.4254.6¢+$159.45

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$346.29

Value

$340.97

PnL

-$5.32

Record

49%

4719-4873 (9592)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.84

Value

$200.48

PnL

-$26.36

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

Both legs:

Up$79.9820.1¢-$79.98

Down$146.8673.3¢+$53.62

std0

Down

Invested

$277.17

Value

$275.2

PnL

-$1.98

Record

67%

51830-25706 (77536)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$224.2

Value

$250

PnL

+$25.79

Record

55%

23048-18636 (41684)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$38.39

Value

—

PnL

-$38.39

Record

55%

48280-39244 (87524)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$208.44

Value

$226.75

PnL

+$18.31

Record

55%

8118-6577 (14695)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$217.71

Value

$207.43

PnL

-$10.28

Record

55%

41545-33964 (75509)

bosona

Down

Invested

$172.91

Value

$193.47

PnL

+$20.55

Record

56%

47445-37975 (85420)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$210.15

Value

—

PnL

-$210.15

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$250.32

Value

$368.84

PnL

+$118.52

Record

76%

70725-22108 (92833)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$176.46

Value

$311.53

PnL

+$135.07

Record

66%

108603-55064 (163667)

Both legs:

Down$134.4343.2¢+$177.1

Up$42.0361.4¢-$42.03

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$105.6

Value

—

PnL

-$105.6

Record

49%

21480-22194 (43674)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.06

Value

$165.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

6876-5621 (12497)

Both legs:

Down$139.1884.3¢+$25.86

Up$25.8820.1¢-$25.88

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$151.84

Value

$208

PnL

+$56.16

Record

12%

17582-126512 (144094)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$90.13

Value

$100

PnL

+$9.87

Record

51%

16749-16400 (33149)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$33.55

Value

—

PnL

-$33.55

Record

64%

39210-22344 (61554)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$93.05

Value

$85.87

PnL

-$7.18

Record

66%

118135-62194 (180329)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$63.48

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$18.78

Record

60%

11651-7625 (19276)

Both legs:

Up$20.9315.7¢-$21.47

Down$41.7693.9¢+$2.69

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$62.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$2.4

Record

57%

9862-7369 (17231)

Both legs:

Up$7.813¢-$7.8

Down$54.691¢+$5.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$57.59

Value

—

PnL

-$57.59

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1b0c5313...addcb9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793041200

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.1K

+$3.34

THG.

Down — $1.0K

+$10.21

wzbbb

Down — $661.24

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $340.97

-$5.32

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$26.36

std0

Down — $275.2

-$1.98

sir-upalot

Down — $250

mo-money

Up — $0