Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$265.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,038

Combined PnL+$157.43

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,114

Combined PnL-$423.24

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 96¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$8.27	56% 7154-5537 (12691)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$176.2	$199.99	+$23.8	67% 51830-25706 (77536)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$168	$199.99	+$32
└ Up leg	Upavg 3.7¢	$8.2	—	-$8.2
machinelearned	Downavg 85.6¢	$227.58	$266	+$38.42	55% 8118-6577 (14695)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 86.7¢	$161.62	$186.52	+$24.9	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$192.03	$202.13	+$10.1	49% 4719-4873 (9592)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$153.02	$202.13	+$49.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$39.01	—	-$39.01
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 39.9¢	$127.24	—	-$127.24	76% 70725-22108 (92833)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 69¢	$152.05	$154.96	+$2.92	55% 13162-10566 (23728)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 44¢	$132	—	-$132	49% 21480-22194 (43674)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 77.7¢	$142.28	$159.98	+$17.7	56% 11940-9215 (21155)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.9¢	$122.53	—	-$122.53	59% 36785-26074 (62859)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 73¢	$99.62	$122.5	+$22.88	55% 6876-5621 (12497)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$64.36	$94.28	+$29.91	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	49% 74849-77671 (152520)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$30.09	—	-$30.09	12% 17582-126512 (144094)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 75¢	$25.91	$34.54	+$8.63	51% 16749-16400 (33149)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$25.79	$29.59	+$3.8	55% 16513-13257 (29770)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 23.8¢	$6.06	—	-$6.06	52% 87251-81446 (168697)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.98	—	-$1.98	60% 11651-7625 (19276)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$0.28	—	-$0.28	65% 19990-10879 (30869)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3579-2780 (6359)