Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$630.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 29 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,269

Combined PnL+$941.54

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares659

Combined PnL-$310.64

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.36	56% 28172-21919 (50091)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.6¢	$835.58	$954.17	+$118.59	55% 13162-10566 (23728)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 61¢	$668.36	$935.74	+$267.38	56% 7154-5537 (12691)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61.7¢	$596.49	$617.9	+$21.41	49% 4719-4873 (9592)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.1¢	$417.21	$475.47	+$58.26	56% 11940-9215 (21155)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$382.81	$351.76	-$31.05	67% 51830-25706 (77536)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$203.6	—	-$203.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$179.21	$351.76	+$172.55
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 46.8¢	$300.63	$322.21	+$23.79	60% 11651-7625 (19276)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67.5¢	$288.02	$300.22	+$12.2	55% 6876-5621 (12497)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$405.84	$221.04	-$184.81	51% 16749-16400 (33149)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.1¢	$273.85	—	-$273.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$131.99	$221.04	+$89.05
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 53.7¢	$220.93	$231.48	+$10.55	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 44.6¢	$170.61	$382.9	+$212.3	59% 36785-26074 (62859)
machinelearned	Downavg 51.8¢	$164.43	$161.77	-$2.66	55% 8118-6577 (14695)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 47¢	$155.57	—	-$155.57	58% 49367-35500 (84867)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$174.24	$176	+$1.76	93% 21707-1689 (23396)
MO mo-money	Downavg 63¢	$179.55	$285	+$105.45	55% 48280-39244 (87524)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 74.8¢	$154.09	$143.63	-$10.46	55% 23048-18636 (41684)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 99¢	$142.8	$120	-$22.8	66% 118135-62194 (180329)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$80	—	-$80	12% 17582-126512 (144094)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$57.93	—	-$57.93	58% 11877-8681 (20558)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 40¢	$27.6	$60	+$32.4	57% 9862-7369 (17231)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 53¢	$52.27	$94	+$41.73	76% 70725-22108 (92833)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 73¢	$49.77	$40	-$9.77	78% 9146-2642 (11788)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$44.09	$59.99	+$15.9	65% 19990-10879 (30869)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 35¢	$10.7	$30.61	+$19.91	55% 16513-13257 (29770)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$9.24	—	-$9.24	49% 74849-77671 (152520)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,807.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.36

Record

56%

28172-21919 (50091)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$835.58

Value

$954.17

PnL

+$118.59

Record

55%

13162-10566 (23728)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$668.36

Value

$935.74

PnL

+$267.38

Record

56%

7154-5537 (12691)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$596.49

Value

$617.9

PnL

+$21.41

Record

49%

4719-4873 (9592)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$417.21

Value

$475.47

PnL

+$58.26

Record

56%

11940-9215 (21155)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$382.81

Value

$351.76

PnL

-$31.05

Record

67%

51830-25706 (77536)

Both legs:

Up$203.657.1¢-$203.6

Down$179.2150.9¢+$172.55

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$300.63

Value

$322.21

PnL

+$23.79

Record

60%

11651-7625 (19276)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$288.02

Value

$300.22

PnL

+$12.2

Record

55%

6876-5621 (12497)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$405.84

Value

$221.04

PnL

-$184.81

Record

51%

16749-16400 (33149)

Both legs:

Up$273.8580.1¢-$273.85

Down$131.9959.7¢+$89.05

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$220.93

Value

$231.48

PnL

+$10.55

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$170.61

Value

$382.9

PnL

+$212.3

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$164.43

Value

$161.77

PnL

-$2.66

Record

55%

8118-6577 (14695)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$155.57

Value

—

PnL

-$155.57

Record

58%

49367-35500 (84867)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$174.24

Value

$176

PnL

+$1.76

Record

93%

21707-1689 (23396)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$179.55

Value

$285

PnL

+$105.45

Record

55%

48280-39244 (87524)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$154.09

Value

$143.63

PnL

-$10.46

Record

55%

23048-18636 (41684)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$142.8

Value

$120

PnL

-$22.8

Record

66%

118135-62194 (180329)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$80

Value

—

PnL

-$80

Record

12%

17582-126512 (144094)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$57.93

Value

—

PnL

-$57.93

Record

58%

11877-8681 (20558)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$27.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$32.4

Record

57%

9862-7369 (17231)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$52.27

Value

$94

PnL

+$41.73

Record

76%

70725-22108 (92833)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$49.77

Value

$40

PnL

-$9.77

Record

78%

9146-2642 (11788)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$44.09

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$15.9

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$10.7

Value

$30.61

PnL

+$19.91

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

—

PnL

-$9.24

Record

49%

74849-77671 (152520)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 29 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x959ef06b...13cc46

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793037900

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.8K

+$28.36

GoodFallen

Down — $954.17

+$118.59

wzbbb

Down — $935.74

+$267.38

ply-pm0

Down — $617.9

+$21.41

FairValueMachine

Down — $475.47

+$58.26

std0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.05

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $322.21

+$23.79

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $300.22

+$12.2

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$184.81

EZTRADENL2

Down — $231.48

+$10.55

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