Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$8.6K
-$23.32
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 88.2¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$129.31 | 56% 7146-5523 (12669) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 84% 54657-10104 (64761) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $855.32 | $863.96 | +$8.64 | 56% 28165-21919 (50084) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97¢ | $374.42 | $386 | +$11.58 | 93% 21661-1689 (23350) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84.7¢ | $301.17 | $269.45 | -$31.72 | 51% 16741-16396 (33137) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 61.3¢ | $159.44 | $203.73 | +$44.3 | 55% 6867-5614 (12481) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $208.29 | $191.11 | -$17.19 | 49% 4710-4866 (9576) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $124.31 | $191.11 | +$66.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $83.98 | — | -$83.98 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $186.58 | $147.04 | -$39.54 | 60% 11643-7617 (19260) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $90.91 | $147.04 | +$56.13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $95.67 | — | -$95.67 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $21 | — | -$21 | 49% 21480-22190 (43670) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $58.53 | $65 | +$6.47 | 67% 51822-25699 (77521) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $65.78 | — | -$65.78 | 59% 36759-26055 (62814) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.2¢ | $85.14 | — | -$85.14 | 56% 11929-9211 (21140) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $51.26 | $61 | +$9.74 | 55% 41532-33955 (75487) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $97.45 | — | -$97.45 | 55% 8109-6570 (14679) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $41.85 | — | -$41.85 | 55% 16497-13232 (29729) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $51 | $60 | +$9 | 66% 118108-62171 (180279) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $43.81 | $55.73 | +$11.92 | 55% 23037-18631 (41668) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $20.28 | $88.16 | +$67.88 | 55% 48240-39209 (87449) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 | 65% 19942-10858 (30800) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 29.3¢ | $6.02 | $12.78 | +$6.76 | 52% 87230-81412 (168642) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $4.8 | — | +$18 | 51% 19223-18465 (37688) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.4¢ | $7.35 | — | -$7.35 | 49% 74813-77595 (152408) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.64 | — | -$1.64 | 59% 16253-11192 (27445) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3578-2780 (6358) |
Invested
$3,081.25
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$129.31
Record
56%
7146-5523 (12669)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
84%
54657-10104 (64761)
Invested
$855.32
Value
$863.96
PnL
+$8.64
Record
56%
28165-21919 (50084)
Invested
$374.42
Value
$386
PnL
+$11.58
Record
93%
21661-1689 (23350)
Invested
$301.17
Value
$269.45
PnL
-$31.72
Record
51%
16741-16396 (33137)
Invested
$159.44
Value
$203.73
PnL
+$44.3
Record
55%
6867-5614 (12481)
Invested
$208.29
Value
$191.11
PnL
-$17.19
Record
49%
4710-4866 (9576)
Both legs:
Invested
$186.58
Value
$147.04
PnL
-$39.54
Record
60%
11643-7617 (19260)
Both legs:
Invested
$21
Value
—
PnL
-$21
Record
49%
21480-22190 (43670)
Invested
$58.53
Value
$65
PnL
+$6.47
Record
67%
51822-25699 (77521)
Invested
$65.78
Value
—
PnL
-$65.78
Record
59%
36759-26055 (62814)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$85.14
Value
—
PnL
-$85.14
Record
56%
11929-9211 (21140)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$51.26
Value
$61
PnL
+$9.74
Record
55%
41532-33955 (75487)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$97.45
Value
—
PnL
-$97.45
Record
55%
8109-6570 (14679)
Invested
$41.85
Value
—
PnL
-$41.85
Record
55%
16497-13232 (29729)
Invested
$51
Value
$60
PnL
+$9
Record
66%
118108-62171 (180279)
Invested
$43.81
Value
$55.73
PnL
+$11.92
Record
55%
23037-18631 (41668)
Invested
$20.28
Value
$88.16
PnL
+$67.88
Record
55%
48240-39209 (87449)
Invested
$18
Value
$20
PnL
+$2
Record
65%
19942-10858 (30800)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$6.76
Record
52%
87230-81412 (168642)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
+$18
Record
51%
19223-18465 (37688)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
—
PnL
-$7.35
Record
49%
74813-77595 (152408)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
—
PnL
-$1.64
Record
59%
16253-11192 (27445)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3578-2780 (6358)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $3.2K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
THG.
Down — $863.96
hoodquant
Down — $386
gansinimen
Down — $269.45
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $203.73
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
std0
Down — $65