Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 76%
2 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$187.93
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.1 | 93% 21661-1689 (23350) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.6¢ | $586.46 | $418.07 | -$168.39 | 56% 7146-5523 (12669) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 71¢ | $271.81 | $270.86 | -$0.95 | 49% 4710-4866 (9576) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $194.58 | $218.02 | +$23.44 | 78% 9142-2641 (11783) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $189.45 | $191.36 | +$1.91 | 56% 28165-21919 (50084) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Upavg 47¢ | $134.39 | — | -$134.39 | 58% 11865-8668 (20533) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $164.48 | $145.25 | -$19.23 | 56% 11929-9211 (21140) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.2¢ | $109.53 | — | -$109.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.8¢ | $54.95 | $145.25 | +$90.3 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 82.8¢ | $143.41 | $173.13 | +$29.72 | 58% 58691-42804 (101495) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 35.1¢ | $54.53 | $155.23 | +$100.71 | 55% 48240-39209 (87449) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $93.28 | $88 | -$5.28 | 60% 11643-7617 (19260) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $44 | — | -$44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $49.28 | $88 | +$38.72 | |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $30.54 | $70 | +$39.46 | 67% 51822-25699 (77521) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $58.35 | — | -$58.35 | 55% 16497-13232 (29729) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $31.04 | $60 | +$28.96 | 66% 118108-62171 (180279) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $42.14 | $50 | +$7.86 | 55% 8109-6570 (14679) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $69.98 | — | -$69.98 | 55% 23037-18631 (41668) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $8.66 | $9.62 | +$0.96 | 63% 47908-28533 (76441) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.1¢ | $4.68 | — | -$4.68 | 52% 87230-81412 (168642) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $6.79 | $9.05 | +$2.26 | 49% 74813-77595 (152408) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $4.98 | $6.38 | +$1.4 | 65% 3690-1993 (5683) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3578-2780 (6358) |
Invested
$1,198.37
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.1
Record
93%
21661-1689 (23350)
Invested
$586.46
Value
$418.07
PnL
-$168.39
Record
56%
7146-5523 (12669)
Invested
$271.81
Value
$270.86
PnL
-$0.95
Record
49%
4710-4866 (9576)
NIULAI4Invested
$194.58
Value
$218.02
PnL
+$23.44
Record
78%
9142-2641 (11783)
Invested
$189.45
Value
$191.36
PnL
+$1.91
Record
56%
28165-21919 (50084)
Invested
$134.39
Value
—
PnL
-$134.39
Record
58%
11865-8668 (20533)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$164.48
Value
$145.25
PnL
-$19.23
Record
56%
11929-9211 (21140)
Both legs:
Invested
$143.41
Value
$173.13
PnL
+$29.72
Record
58%
58691-42804 (101495)
Invested
$54.53
Value
$155.23
PnL
+$100.71
Record
55%
48240-39209 (87449)
Invested
$93.28
Value
$88
PnL
-$5.28
Record
60%
11643-7617 (19260)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.54
Value
$70
PnL
+$39.46
Record
67%
51822-25699 (77521)
Invested
$58.35
Value
—
PnL
-$58.35
Record
55%
16497-13232 (29729)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$60
PnL
+$28.96
Record
66%
118108-62171 (180279)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$42.14
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.86
Record
55%
8109-6570 (14679)
Invested
$69.98
Value
—
PnL
-$69.98
Record
55%
23037-18631 (41668)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.66
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$0.96
Record
63%
47908-28533 (76441)
Invested
$4.68
Value
—
PnL
-$4.68
Record
52%
87230-81412 (168642)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.79
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$2.26
Record
49%
74813-77595 (152408)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$6.38
PnL
+$1.4
Record
65%
3690-1993 (5683)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3578-2780 (6358)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
wzbbb
Down — $418.07
ply-pm0
Down — $270.86
NIULAI4
Down — $218.02
THG.
Down — $191.36
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $173.13
mo-money
Down — $155.23
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded