Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$8.3K
$1.5K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 95.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$105.93 | 56% 7136-5515 (12651) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$49.83 | 93% 21625-1687 (23312) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 45.1¢ | $999.19 | $2.2K | +$1.2K | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91.8¢ | $491.07 | $523.69 | +$32.62 | 55% 8101-6566 (14667) |
ST std0 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $304.87 | $300 | -$4.87 | 67% 51815-25692 (77507) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $176.96 | $218.32 | +$41.36 | 56% 16477-13211 (29688) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $190.87 | $193.59 | +$2.72 | 49% 4701-4863 (9564) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 75¢ | $146.03 | $176 | +$29.97 | 60% 11637-7611 (19248) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.4¢ | $155 | $230 | +$75 | 56% 11921-9208 (21129) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 95.6¢ | $119.61 | $122.4 | +$2.79 | 59% 16237-11185 (27422) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 87¢ | $88 | $100 | +$12 | 51% 16734-16392 (33126) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $58.46 | $33.04 | -$25.42 | 58% 12169-8808 (20977) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16¢ | $40 | — | -$40 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.8¢ | $18.45 | $33.04 | +$14.59 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $34.73 | $32.58 | -$2.15 | 55% 6858-5611 (12469) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $24.09 | $46.06 | +$21.97 | 66% 118087-62156 (180243) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $34.9 | $37.27 | +$2.37 | 52% 87214-81389 (168603) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | 49% 74757-77547 (152304) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 57% 9851-7356 (17207) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 56% 2117-1658 (3775) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.5¢ | $39.18 | — | -$39.18 | 49% 21479-22190 (43669) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3577-2780 (6357) |
Invested
$2,130.07
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$105.93
Record
56%
7136-5515 (12651)
Invested
$1,789.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$49.83
Record
93%
21625-1687 (23312)
Invested
$999.19
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
machinelearnedInvested
$491.07
Value
$523.69
PnL
+$32.62
Record
55%
8101-6566 (14667)
Invested
$304.87
Value
$300
PnL
-$4.87
Record
67%
51815-25692 (77507)
Invested
$176.96
Value
$218.32
PnL
+$41.36
Record
56%
16477-13211 (29688)
Invested
$190.87
Value
$193.59
PnL
+$2.72
Record
49%
4701-4863 (9564)
Invested
$146.03
Value
$176
PnL
+$29.97
Record
60%
11637-7611 (19248)
FairValueMachineInvested
$155
Value
$230
PnL
+$75
Record
56%
11921-9208 (21129)
pspspsps5Invested
$119.61
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$2.79
Record
59%
16237-11185 (27422)
Invested
$88
Value
$100
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
16734-16392 (33126)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$58.46
Value
$33.04
PnL
-$25.42
Record
58%
12169-8808 (20977)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.73
Value
$32.58
PnL
-$2.15
Record
55%
6858-5611 (12469)
Invested
$24.09
Value
$46.06
PnL
+$21.97
Record
66%
118087-62156 (180243)
Invested
$34.9
Value
$37.27
PnL
+$2.37
Record
52%
87214-81389 (168603)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
-$3.06
Record
49%
74757-77547 (152304)
Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
57%
9851-7356 (17207)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
56%
2117-1658 (3775)
Invested
$39.18
Value
—
PnL
-$39.18
Record
49%
21479-22190 (43669)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3577-2780 (6357)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $2.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.2K
machinelearned
Down — $523.69
std0
Down — $300
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $218.32
ply-pm0
Down — $193.59
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $176
FairValueMachine
Down — $230
pspspsps5
Down — $122.4