Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 60%
3 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$300.46
Smart Money Signal
17 of 28 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$28.1 | 56% 28161-21919 (50080) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 75.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$3.96 | 56% 7136-5515 (12651) |
 pkmgoh92CTR | Upavg 26.7¢ | $400 | — | -$400 | 46% 503-600 (1103) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $502.51 | $704.57 | +$202.06 | 58% 49342-35483 (84825) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $410.67 | $405.12 | -$5.54 | 49% 4701-4863 (9564) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 74.8¢ | $320.03 | $330.12 | +$10.09 | 60% 11637-7611 (19248) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $253.41 | $289.62 | +$36.2 | 78% 9138-2640 (11778) |
ST std0 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $180.04 | $171.3 | -$8.74 | 67% 51815-25692 (77507) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $177.21 | $179 | +$1.79 | 93% 21625-1687 (23312) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57¢ | $149.68 | $142.5 | -$7.19 | 56% 11921-9208 (21129) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR | Upavg 54¢ | $147.44 | — | -$147.44 | 53% 1928-1735 (3663) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $131.2 | $153.45 | +$22.25 | 58% 58683-42785 (101468) |
 ohioism | Downavg 86¢ | $129.16 | $150.19 | +$21.03 | 64% 39200-22338 (61538) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 18.1¢ | $116.95 | $83.52 | -$33.42 | 55% 8101-6566 (14667) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.4¢ | $47.96 | $83.52 | +$35.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.1¢ | $68.99 | — | -$68.99 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 85.5¢ | $138.95 | $114.32 | -$24.64 | 55% 6858-5611 (12469) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $119.84 | $112.87 | -$6.97 | 51% 16734-16392 (33126) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $42.99 | — | -$42.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.1¢ | $76.85 | $112.87 | +$36.02 | |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $79.02 | $80.18 | +$1.17 | 58% 12169-8808 (20977) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.5¢ | $40 | — | -$40 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $39.02 | $80.18 | +$41.16 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $68.61 | $77.71 | +$9.1 | 55% 23031-18626 (41657) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $44.17 | $59.32 | +$15.15 | 66% 118087-62156 (180243) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 52% 87214-81389 (168603) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.8¢ | $14.74 | — | -$14.74 | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $9.21 | — | -$9.21 | 57% 9851-7356 (17207) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $12.04 | — | -$12.04 | 65% 3686-1991 (5677) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.6¢ | $4.55 | — | -$4.55 | 59% 16237-11185 (27422) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $7.91 | $9.42 | +$1.51 | 63% 47883-28520 (76403) |
Invested
$2,781.9
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$28.1
Record
56%
28161-21919 (50080)
Invested
$1,134.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$3.96
Record
56%
7136-5515 (12651)
pkmgoh92CTRInvested
$400
Value
—
PnL
-$400
Record
46%
503-600 (1103)
Invested
$502.51
Value
$704.57
PnL
+$202.06
Record
58%
49342-35483 (84825)
Invested
$410.67
Value
$405.12
PnL
-$5.54
Record
49%
4701-4863 (9564)
Invested
$320.03
Value
$330.12
PnL
+$10.09
Record
60%
11637-7611 (19248)
NIULAI4Invested
$253.41
Value
$289.62
PnL
+$36.2
Record
78%
9138-2640 (11778)
Invested
$180.04
Value
$171.3
PnL
-$8.74
Record
67%
51815-25692 (77507)
Invested
$177.21
Value
$179
PnL
+$1.79
Record
93%
21625-1687 (23312)
FairValueMachineInvested
$149.68
Value
$142.5
PnL
-$7.19
Record
56%
11921-9208 (21129)
Invested
$147.44
Value
—
PnL
-$147.44
Record
53%
1928-1735 (3663)
Invested
$131.2
Value
$153.45
PnL
+$22.25
Record
58%
58683-42785 (101468)
ohioismInvested
$129.16
Value
$150.19
PnL
+$21.03
Record
64%
39200-22338 (61538)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$116.95
Value
$83.52
PnL
-$33.42
Record
55%
8101-6566 (14667)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.95
Value
$114.32
PnL
-$24.64
Record
55%
6858-5611 (12469)
Invested
$119.84
Value
$112.87
PnL
-$6.97
Record
51%
16734-16392 (33126)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$79.02
Value
$80.18
PnL
+$1.17
Record
58%
12169-8808 (20977)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.61
Value
$77.71
PnL
+$9.1
Record
55%
23031-18626 (41657)
Invested
$44.17
Value
$59.32
PnL
+$15.15
Record
66%
118087-62156 (180243)
Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
52%
87214-81389 (168603)
Invested
$14.74
Value
—
PnL
-$14.74
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
Invested
$9.21
Value
—
PnL
-$9.21
Record
57%
9851-7356 (17207)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$12.04
Value
—
PnL
-$12.04
Record
65%
3686-1991 (5677)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
—
PnL
-$4.55
Record
59%
16237-11185 (27422)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$7.91
Value
$9.42
PnL
+$1.51
Record
63%
47883-28520 (76403)
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