Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$934.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares11,696

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,047

Combined PnL-$481.78

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.08	56% 28161-21919 (50080)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.4¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$288.26	56% 7136-5515 (12651)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48¢	$1.2K	$2.4K	+$1.3K	59% 36738-26033 (62771)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$31.35	93% 21625-1687 (23312)
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$538.71	$882.96	+$344.24	58% 49342-35483 (84825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$400.76	$882.96	+$482.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$137.95	—	-$137.95
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76¢	$279.33	$313.03	+$33.7	55% 6858-5611 (12469)
ST std0	Downavg 85.7¢	$262.75	$268.35	+$5.61	67% 51815-25692 (77507)
machinelearned	Downavg 79.5¢	$217.32	$251.61	+$34.29	55% 8101-6566 (14667)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 45.7¢	$420.68	—	-$420.68	53% 1928-1735 (3663)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.4¢	$149.41	$160.87	+$11.46	56% 11921-9208 (21129)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 56¢	$168	$300	+$132	49% 21479-22190 (43669)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 27.4¢	$116.31	$95.06	-$18.45	60% 11637-7611 (19248)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$53.23	$95.06	+$41.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.4¢	$60.28	—	-$60.28
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 69.9¢	$106.93	$127	+$20.07	49% 4701-4863 (9564)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 54.2¢	$55.67	$100.86	+$45.19	51% 16734-16392 (33126)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 96.7¢	$97.21	$100.5	+$3.29	57% 9851-7356 (17207)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 78.9¢	$95.15	$120.53	+$25.38	56% 16477-13211 (29688)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$46.69	—	-$46.69	84% 54640-10094 (64734)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$56.53	$72.45	+$15.92	55% 23031-18626 (41657)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 81¢	$52.22	$62.96	+$10.74	66% 118087-62156 (180243)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 65¢	$65.19	$100.29	+$35.1	58% 11859-8657 (20516)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$60.16	$37.17	-$22.99	58% 12169-8808 (20977)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$39.75	—	-$39.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$20.41	$37.17	+$16.76
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$14.5	$21.22	+$6.72	52% 87214-81389 (168603)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$5.2	—	-$5.2	65% 19899-10832 (30731)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$2.63	—	-$2.63	59% 16237-11185 (27422)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.8¢	$6.58	—	-$6.58	49% 74757-77547 (152304)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,779.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.08

Record

56%

28161-21919 (50080)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,941.86

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$288.26

Record

56%

7136-5515 (12651)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,160.83

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

36738-26033 (62771)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,782.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$31.35

Record

93%

21625-1687 (23312)

PBot-6ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$538.71

Value

$882.96

PnL

+$344.24

Record

58%

49342-35483 (84825)

Both legs:

Down$400.7645.4¢+$482.2

Up$137.9553.2¢-$137.95

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$279.33

Value

$313.03

PnL

+$33.7

Record

55%

6858-5611 (12469)

std0

Down

Invested

$262.75

Value

$268.35

PnL

+$5.61

Record

67%

51815-25692 (77507)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$217.32

Value

$251.61

PnL

+$34.29

Record

55%

8101-6566 (14667)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$420.68

Value

—

PnL

-$420.68

Record

53%

1928-1735 (3663)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$149.41

Value

$160.87

PnL

+$11.46

Record

56%

11921-9208 (21129)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$168

Value

$300

PnL

+$132

Record

49%

21479-22190 (43669)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$116.31

Value

$95.06

PnL

-$18.45

Record

60%

11637-7611 (19248)

Both legs:

Invested

$106.93

Value

$127

PnL

+$20.07

Record

49%

4701-4863 (9564)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$55.67

Value

$100.86

PnL

+$45.19

Record

51%

16734-16392 (33126)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$97.21

Value

$100.5

PnL

+$3.29

Record

57%

9851-7356 (17207)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$95.15

Value

$120.53

PnL

+$25.38

Record

56%

16477-13211 (29688)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$46.69

Value

—

PnL

-$46.69

Record

84%

54640-10094 (64734)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$56.53

Value

$72.45

PnL

+$15.92

Record

55%

23031-18626 (41657)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$52.22

Value

$62.96

PnL

+$10.74

Record

66%

118087-62156 (180243)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$65.19

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$35.1

Record

58%

11859-8657 (20516)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$60.16

Value

$37.17

PnL

-$22.99

Record

58%

12169-8808 (20977)

Both legs:

Up$39.7543.1¢-$39.75

Down$20.4154.9¢+$16.76

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$14.5

Value

$21.22

PnL

+$6.72

Record

52%

87214-81389 (168603)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

—

PnL

-$5.2

Record

65%

19899-10832 (30731)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.63

Value

—

PnL

-$2.63

Record

59%

16237-11185 (27422)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

—

PnL

-$6.58

Record

49%

74757-77547 (152304)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3152b33...14383e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793031300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.8K

+$28.08

wzbbb

Down — $2.7K

-$288.26

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.4K

+$1.3K

hoodquant

Down — $1.8K

+$31.35

PBot-6

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$344.24

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $313.03

+$33.7

std0

Down — $268.35

+$5.61

machinelearned

Down — $251.61

+$34.29

0xdc27...afdd9a

CTR

Up — $0

-$420.68

FairValueMachine

Down — $160.87

+$11.46

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