Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 94% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 93%
5 arb excluded
$8.8K
$1.1K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 17 top traders (94%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$28.05 | 56% 28161-21919 (50080) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 93.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$56.88 | 56% 7136-5515 (12651) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49¢ | $449.8 | $901 | +$451.2 | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $504.5 | $514.8 | +$10.3 | 93% 21625-1687 (23312) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $314.51 | $719.5 | +$404.99 | 58% 49342-35483 (84825) |
ST std0 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $287.61 | $294.12 | +$6.5 | 67% 51815-25692 (77507) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.1¢ | $236.51 | $331.26 | +$94.75 | 56% 11921-9208 (21129) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 65.9¢ | $217.66 | $262.6 | +$48.03 | 60% 11637-7611 (19248) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $124.88 | $159.28 | +$34.4 | 49% 4701-4863 (9564) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $88.98 | $159.28 | +$70.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $35.9 | — | -$35.9 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.7¢ | $12.08 | — | -$12.08 | 84% 54640-10094 (64734) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $72.99 | $99.99 | +$27 | 51% 16734-16392 (33126) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 43.8¢ | $120.9 | $81.47 | -$39.43 | 55% 8101-6566 (14667) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.3¢ | $58.89 | $81.47 | +$22.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.8¢ | $62.01 | — | -$62.01 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 44.3¢ | $91.2 | $46.59 | -$44.61 | 55% 6858-5611 (12469) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $60.32 | — | -$60.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.3¢ | $30.88 | $46.59 | +$15.71 | |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $79.79 | $97.05 | +$17.26 | 58% 12169-8808 (20977) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.9¢ | $39.99 | — | -$39.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41¢ | $39.81 | $97.05 | +$57.24 | |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $31.38 | $30.22 | -$1.16 | 49% 74757-77547 (152304) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2¢ | $5.7 | — | -$5.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85¢ | $25.68 | $30.22 | +$4.54 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $54.09 | $50 | -$4.09 | 55% 23031-18626 (41657) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $15.72 | $20.02 | +$4.3 | 65% 3686-1991 (5677) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $15.62 | $18.59 | +$2.97 | 65% 19899-10832 (30731) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $10.47 | $15.18 | +$4.71 | 52% 87214-81389 (168603) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $9.8 | $15.15 | +$5.35 | 56% 16477-13211 (29688) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $5 | $0.01 | +$6.95 | 56% 2117-1658 (3775) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3577-2780 (6357) |
Invested
$2,776.95
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$28.05
Record
56%
28161-21919 (50080)
Invested
$2,240.92
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$56.88
Record
56%
7136-5515 (12651)
Invested
$449.8
Value
$901
PnL
+$451.2
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
Invested
$504.5
Value
$514.8
PnL
+$10.3
Record
93%
21625-1687 (23312)
Invested
$314.51
Value
$719.5
PnL
+$404.99
Record
58%
49342-35483 (84825)
Invested
$287.61
Value
$294.12
PnL
+$6.5
Record
67%
51815-25692 (77507)
FairValueMachineInvested
$236.51
Value
$331.26
PnL
+$94.75
Record
56%
11921-9208 (21129)
Invested
$217.66
Value
$262.6
PnL
+$48.03
Record
60%
11637-7611 (19248)
Invested
$124.88
Value
$159.28
PnL
+$34.4
Record
49%
4701-4863 (9564)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.08
Value
—
PnL
-$12.08
Record
84%
54640-10094 (64734)
Invested
$72.99
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$27
Record
51%
16734-16392 (33126)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$120.9
Value
$81.47
PnL
-$39.43
Record
55%
8101-6566 (14667)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.2
Value
$46.59
PnL
-$44.61
Record
55%
6858-5611 (12469)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$79.79
Value
$97.05
PnL
+$17.26
Record
58%
12169-8808 (20977)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$31.38
Value
$30.22
PnL
-$1.16
Record
49%
74757-77547 (152304)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.09
Value
$50
PnL
-$4.09
Record
55%
23031-18626 (41657)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$15.72
Value
$20.02
PnL
+$4.3
Record
65%
3686-1991 (5677)
Invested
$15.62
Value
$18.59
PnL
+$2.97
Record
65%
19899-10832 (30731)
Invested
$10.47
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$4.71
Record
52%
87214-81389 (168603)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$5.35
Record
56%
16477-13211 (29688)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$6.95
Record
56%
2117-1658 (3775)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3577-2780 (6357)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $2.8K
wzbbb
Down — $2.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $901
hoodquant
Down — $514.8
PBot-6
Down — $719.5
std0
Down — $294.12
FairValueMachine
Down — $331.26
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $262.6
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0