Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 76%
4 arb excluded
$8.6K
-$196.47
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$28.02 | 56% 28161-21919 (50080) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$169.52 | 56% 7136-5515 (12651) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81¢ | $855.15 | $1.1K | +$200.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.1¢ | $370.51 | — | -$370.51 | |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $865 | $1.1K | +$251.76 | 58% 49342-35483 (84825) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $406.5 | $455.47 | +$48.97 | 55% 8101-6566 (14667) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.9¢ | $345.51 | $455.47 | +$109.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.7¢ | $60.99 | — | -$60.99 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 76.3¢ | $357.63 | $400 | +$42.37 | 51% 16734-16392 (33126) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 76.5¢ | $396.84 | $412.59 | +$15.75 | 60% 11637-7611 (19248) |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 79.9¢ | $389.41 | $441.03 | +$51.63 | 55% 23031-18626 (41657) |
 pkmgoh92CTR | Upavg 20.2¢ | $400 | — | -$400 | 46% 503-600 (1103) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $250.29 | $260.65 | +$10.36 | 67% 51815-25692 (77507) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.4¢ | $196.59 | $260.65 | +$64.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.6¢ | $53.7 | — | -$53.7 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.5¢ | $246.23 | $290.04 | +$43.81 | 56% 11921-9208 (21129) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 82.6¢ | $280.02 | $225.97 | -$53.2 | 55% 6858-5611 (12469) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $271.22 | $297.83 | +$26.61 | 78% 9138-2640 (11778) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $171.88 | $205.49 | +$33.61 | 49% 4701-4863 (9564) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $142.97 | $205.49 | +$62.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.8¢ | $28.91 | — | -$28.91 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $119.14 | $125.81 | +$6.67 | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 79.1¢ | $121.73 | $149 | +$27.27 | 49% 74757-77547 (152304) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $98.7 | $130.39 | +$31.69 | 56% 16477-13211 (29688) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $213.3 | — | -$213.3 | 53% 1928-1735 (3663) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $75.84 | $95.59 | +$19.75 | 59% 16237-11185 (27422) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | 58% 12169-8808 (20977) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $45.47 | $50.57 | +$5.1 | 52% 87214-81389 (168603) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $58.73 | $53.95 | -$4.78 | 65% 19899-10832 (30731) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $13.2 | — | -$13.2 | 57% 9851-7356 (17207) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $31.79 | $40.27 | +$8.48 | 65% 3686-1991 (5677) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.2¢ | $26.56 | — | -$26.56 | 66% 118087-62156 (180243) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $5 | $10.64 | +$5.64 | 56% 2117-1658 (3775) |
Invested
$2,773.98
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$28.02
Record
56%
28161-21919 (50080)
Invested
$1,225.66
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$169.52
Record
56%
7136-5515 (12651)
Both legs:
Invested
$865
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$251.76
Record
58%
49342-35483 (84825)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$406.5
Value
$455.47
PnL
+$48.97
Record
55%
8101-6566 (14667)
Both legs:
Invested
$357.63
Value
$400
PnL
+$42.37
Record
51%
16734-16392 (33126)
Invested
$396.84
Value
$412.59
PnL
+$15.75
Record
60%
11637-7611 (19248)
Invested
$389.41
Value
$441.03
PnL
+$51.63
Record
55%
23031-18626 (41657)
pkmgoh92CTRInvested
$400
Value
—
PnL
-$400
Record
46%
503-600 (1103)
Invested
$250.29
Value
$260.65
PnL
+$10.36
Record
67%
51815-25692 (77507)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$246.23
Value
$290.04
PnL
+$43.81
Record
56%
11921-9208 (21129)
Invested
$280.02
Value
$225.97
PnL
-$53.2
Record
55%
6858-5611 (12469)
NIULAI4Invested
$271.22
Value
$297.83
PnL
+$26.61
Record
78%
9138-2640 (11778)
Invested
$171.88
Value
$205.49
PnL
+$33.61
Record
49%
4701-4863 (9564)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.14
Value
$125.81
PnL
+$6.67
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$121.73
Value
$149
PnL
+$27.27
Record
49%
74757-77547 (152304)
Invested
$98.7
Value
$130.39
PnL
+$31.69
Record
56%
16477-13211 (29688)
Invested
$213.3
Value
—
PnL
-$213.3
Record
53%
1928-1735 (3663)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$75.84
Value
$95.59
PnL
+$19.75
Record
59%
16237-11185 (27422)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$50
Record
58%
12169-8808 (20977)
Invested
$45.47
Value
$50.57
PnL
+$5.1
Record
52%
87214-81389 (168603)
Invested
$58.73
Value
$53.95
PnL
-$4.78
Record
65%
19899-10832 (30731)
Invested
$13.2
Value
—
PnL
-$13.2
Record
57%
9851-7356 (17207)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$31.79
Value
$40.27
PnL
+$8.48
Record
65%
3686-1991 (5677)
Invested
$26.56
Value
—
PnL
-$26.56
Record
66%
118087-62156 (180243)
Invested
$5
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$5.64
Record
56%
2117-1658 (3775)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $2.8K
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
Down — $1.1K
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gansinimen
Down — $400
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $412.59
sir-upalot
Down — $441.03
pkmgoh92
CTRUp — $0
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Down — $290.04