Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,774

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Down9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,532

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	$-3.8K	56% 3577-2780 (6357)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.96	56% 7136-5515 (12651)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$802.16	$1.2K	+$432.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$424.49	—	-$424.49
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$992.14	$1.0K	+$30.85	93% 21625-1687 (23312)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 59.1¢	$472.98	$613.96	+$140.97	60% 11637-7611 (19248)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$608.34	$383.32	-$222.82	55% 6858-5611 (12469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$258.81	$383.32	+$123.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$346.15	—	-$346.15
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$475.18	$427.66	-$47.52	56% 11921-9208 (21129)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$259.78	$427.66	+$167.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$215.4	—	-$215.4
pkmgoh92	Downavg 23.7¢	$399.92	$1.7K	+$1.3K	46% 503-600 (1103)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$252.18	$346.06	+$93.88	55% 8101-6566 (14667)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$199.32	$346.06	+$146.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.5¢	$52.87	—	-$52.87
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$277.36	$277.48	+$0.11	49% 4701-4863 (9564)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$143.6	$277.48	+$133.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$133.77	—	-$133.77
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$335.02	$248.76	-$86.26	67% 51815-25692 (77507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$170.94	$248.76	+$77.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$164.08	—	-$164.08
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$365.67	$152	-$213.67	59% 36738-26033 (62771)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$224.71	—	-$224.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.7¢	$140.96	$152	+$11.04
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 46¢	$142.38	—	-$142.38	51% 16734-16392 (33126)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$219.35	$71	-$148.35	55% 23031-18626 (41657)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$176.07	—	-$176.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$43.28	$71	+$27.72
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$73.54	—	-$73.54	53% 1928-1735 (3663)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$79.51	$87.01	+$7.5	58% 12169-8808 (20977)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$40	—	-$40
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$39.51	$87.01	+$47.5
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 94¢	$70.93	$74.67	+$3.74	78% 9138-2640 (11778)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$93.96	$60	-$14.7	65% 19899-10832 (30731)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 41.8¢	$19.18	$29.12	+$9.94	52% 87214-81389 (168603)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$30.05	—	-$30.05	49% 74757-77547 (152304)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$14.79	$20.98	+$6.19	65% 3686-1991 (5677)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$11.7	—	-$11.7	58% 58683-42785 (101468)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 45¢	$9.95	$22.11	+$12.16	66% 118087-62156 (180243)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$2.92	—	-$2.92	59% 16237-11185 (27422)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$1.09	—	-$1.09	63% 47883-28520 (76403)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$3.9	—	-$3.9	56% 16477-13211 (29688)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

56%

3577-2780 (6357)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,226.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.96

Record

56%

7136-5515 (12651)

Both legs:

Down$802.1665¢+$432.46

Up$424.4944.6¢-$424.49

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$992.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30.85

Record

93%

21625-1687 (23312)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$472.98

Value

$613.96

PnL

+$140.97

Record

60%

11637-7611 (19248)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$608.34

Value

$383.32

PnL

-$222.82

Record

55%

6858-5611 (12469)

Both legs:

Down$258.8167.5¢+$123.33

Up$346.1546.6¢-$346.15

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$475.18

Value

$427.66

PnL

-$47.52

Record

56%

11921-9208 (21129)

Both legs:

Down$259.7860.7¢+$167.88

Up$215.452.8¢-$215.4

pkmgoh92

Down

Invested

$399.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

503-600 (1103)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$252.18

Value

$346.06

PnL

+$93.88

Record

55%

8101-6566 (14667)

Both legs:

Down$199.3257.6¢+$146.75

Up$52.8720.5¢-$52.87

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.36

Value

$277.48

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

4701-4863 (9564)

Both legs:

Down$143.651.8¢+$133.88

Up$133.7746.5¢-$133.77

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.02

Value

$248.76

PnL

-$86.26

Record

67%

51815-25692 (77507)

Both legs:

Down$170.9468.7¢+$77.82

Up$164.0866.2¢-$164.08

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$365.67

Value

$152

PnL

-$213.67

Record

59%

36738-26033 (62771)

Both legs:

Up$224.7150.7¢-$224.71

Down$140.9692.7¢+$11.04

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$142.38

Value

—

PnL

-$142.38

Record

51%

16734-16392 (33126)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$219.35

Value

$71

PnL

-$148.35

Record

55%

23031-18626 (41657)

Both legs:

Up$176.0764.9¢-$176.07

Down$43.2861¢+$27.72

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100

Invested

$73.54

Value

—

PnL

-$73.54

Record

53%

1928-1735 (3663)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$79.51

Value

$87.01

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

12169-8808 (20977)

Both legs:

Up$4038.3¢-$40

Down$39.5145.4¢+$47.5

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$70.93

Value

$74.67

PnL

+$3.74

Record

78%

9138-2640 (11778)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$93.96

Value

$60

PnL

-$14.7

Record

65%

19899-10832 (30731)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$19.18

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$9.94

Record

52%

87214-81389 (168603)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$30.05

Value

—

PnL

-$30.05

Record

49%

74757-77547 (152304)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$20.98

PnL

+$6.19

Record

65%

3686-1991 (5677)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

—

PnL

-$11.7

Record

58%

58683-42785 (101468)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$9.95

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$12.16

Record

66%

118087-62156 (180243)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.92

Value

—

PnL

-$2.92

Record

59%

16237-11185 (27422)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

—

PnL

-$1.09

Record

63%

47883-28520 (76403)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

—

PnL

-$3.9

Record

56%

16477-13211 (29688)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa086ff5c...da8dec

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793030400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $1.0K

+$30.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $613.96

+$140.97

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

pkmgoh92

Down — $1.7K

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded