Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 77%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$67.12
Smart Money Signal
19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 78.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$2.3 | 56% 7136-5515 (12651) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 51.2¢ | $490.51 | $594.32 | +$103.81 | 56% 11921-9208 (21129) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $208.06 | $270 | +$61.94 | 78% 9138-2640 (11778) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $262.77 | $252.02 | -$10.75 | 49% 4701-4863 (9564) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 44.4¢ | $189.42 | $241.29 | +$51.87 | 55% 6858-5611 (12469) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 51.2¢ | $317.57 | — | -$317.57 | 60% 11637-7611 (19248) |
ST std0 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $184.6 | $174.96 | -$9.64 | 67% 51815-25692 (77507) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 63.4¢ | $135.05 | $157.94 | +$22.89 | 54% 9805-8340 (18145) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $111.15 | $228.86 | +$117.71 | 59% 36738-26033 (62771) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 38.4¢ | $89.82 | $130.28 | +$40.46 | 58% 12169-8808 (20977) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.4¢ | $50 | $130.28 | +$80.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.1¢ | $39.82 | — | -$39.82 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 31.8¢ | $38.45 | $121.04 | +$82.59 | 56% 16477-13211 (29688) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 54.7¢ | $58.14 | $81.14 | +$23 | 55% 8101-6566 (14667) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $76.97 | — | -$76.97 | 55% 23031-18626 (41657) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 38.5¢ | $23.1 | $55 | +$33.45 | 65% 19899-10832 (30731) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $22.34 | — | -$22.34 | 52% 87214-81389 (168603) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $11.9 | $35 | +$23.1 | 67% 22348-11168 (33516) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $18.39 | $25.92 | +$7.53 | 63% 47883-28520 (76403) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $11.1 | — | -$11.1 | 56% 2117-1658 (3775) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $8.96 | $12 | +$3.04 | 49% 74757-77547 (152304) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 65% 3686-1991 (5677) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $5 | +$3.35 | 58% 58683-42785 (101468) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $5 | +$1.4 | 58% 11859-8657 (20516) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $18.2 | — | -$18.2 | 66% 118087-62156 (180243) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19212-18458 (37670) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3577-2780 (6357) |
Invested
$2,113.94
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$2.3
Record
56%
7136-5515 (12651)
FairValueMachineInvested
$490.51
Value
$594.32
PnL
+$103.81
Record
56%
11921-9208 (21129)
NIULAI4Invested
$208.06
Value
$270
PnL
+$61.94
Record
78%
9138-2640 (11778)
Invested
$262.77
Value
$252.02
PnL
-$10.75
Record
49%
4701-4863 (9564)
Invested
$189.42
Value
$241.29
PnL
+$51.87
Record
55%
6858-5611 (12469)
Invested
$317.57
Value
—
PnL
-$317.57
Record
60%
11637-7611 (19248)
Invested
$184.6
Value
$174.96
PnL
-$9.64
Record
67%
51815-25692 (77507)
Invested
$135.05
Value
$157.94
PnL
+$22.89
Record
54%
9805-8340 (18145)
Invested
$111.15
Value
$228.86
PnL
+$117.71
Record
59%
36738-26033 (62771)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$89.82
Value
$130.28
PnL
+$40.46
Record
58%
12169-8808 (20977)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.45
Value
$121.04
PnL
+$82.59
Record
56%
16477-13211 (29688)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$58.14
Value
$81.14
PnL
+$23
Record
55%
8101-6566 (14667)
Invested
$76.97
Value
—
PnL
-$76.97
Record
55%
23031-18626 (41657)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$55
PnL
+$33.45
Record
65%
19899-10832 (30731)
Invested
$22.34
Value
—
PnL
-$22.34
Record
52%
87214-81389 (168603)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.9
Value
$35
PnL
+$23.1
Record
67%
22348-11168 (33516)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$18.39
Value
$25.92
PnL
+$7.53
Record
63%
47883-28520 (76403)
Invested
$11.1
Value
—
PnL
-$11.1
Record
56%
2117-1658 (3775)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.96
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.04
Record
49%
74757-77547 (152304)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
3686-1991 (5677)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.35
Record
58%
58683-42785 (101468)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
11859-8657 (20516)
Invested
$18.2
Value
—
PnL
-$18.2
Record
66%
118087-62156 (180243)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19212-18458 (37670)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3577-2780 (6357)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Up — $2.1K
FairValueMachine
Up — $594.32
NIULAI4
Up — $270
ply-pm0
Up — $252.02
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $241.29
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
std0
Up — $174.96
thesidehustle
Up — $157.94
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $228.86
wowitsamazing
ARBArbitrage — excluded