Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$220.15
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.74 | 93% 21574-1680 (23254) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 91.5¢ | $949.7 | $942.77 | -$6.93 | 56% 7105-5492 (12597) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 53¢ | $206.38 | — | -$206.38 | 59% 36681-25997 (62678) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $201.11 | $194.52 | -$6.59 | 49% 4690-4844 (9534) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $131.05 | $155.44 | +$24.39 | 62% 27936-17377 (45313) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.2¢ | $96.65 | $155.44 | +$58.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.5¢ | $34.4 | — | -$34.4 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 87.9¢ | $149.63 | $149.46 | -$0.18 | 55% 6845-5601 (12446) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 64.2¢ | $138.17 | $157.85 | +$19.68 | 56% 11914-9199 (21113) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $90.8 | $91.58 | +$0.78 | 52% 87102-81310 (168412) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 47¢ | $71.62 | $152.38 | +$80.76 | 58% 49097-35254 (84351) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $15.67 | $19 | +$3.33 | 66% 118014-62112 (180126) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $50.25 | $50 | -$0.25 | 55% 8093-6557 (14650) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $83.11 | — | -$83.11 | 53% 1927-1731 (3658) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $37.8 | $35 | -$2.8 | 60% 11624-7600 (19224) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.2¢ | $25.17 | — | -$25.17 | 54% 9773-8307 (18080) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $10.72 | — | -$10.72 | 55% 23018-18619 (41637) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $18.45 | $15 | -$3.45 | 67% 51803-25680 (77483) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $15.8 | $20.26 | +$4.46 | 57% 64885-49078 (113963) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $5.11 | $6.08 | +$0.97 | 51% 14010-13336 (27346) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.33 | $9.04 | +$3.71 | 65% 19843-10779 (30622) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3576-2779 (6355) |
Invested
$1,162.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.74
Record
93%
21574-1680 (23254)
Invested
$949.7
Value
$942.77
PnL
-$6.93
Record
56%
7105-5492 (12597)
Invested
$206.38
Value
—
PnL
-$206.38
Record
59%
36681-25997 (62678)
Invested
$201.11
Value
$194.52
PnL
-$6.59
Record
49%
4690-4844 (9534)
Invested
$131.05
Value
$155.44
PnL
+$24.39
Record
62%
27936-17377 (45313)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.63
Value
$149.46
PnL
-$0.18
Record
55%
6845-5601 (12446)
FairValueMachineInvested
$138.17
Value
$157.85
PnL
+$19.68
Record
56%
11914-9199 (21113)
Invested
$90.8
Value
$91.58
PnL
+$0.78
Record
52%
87102-81310 (168412)
Invested
$71.62
Value
$152.38
PnL
+$80.76
Record
58%
49097-35254 (84351)
Invested
$15.67
Value
$19
PnL
+$3.33
Record
66%
118014-62112 (180126)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$50.25
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
8093-6557 (14650)
Invested
$83.11
Value
—
PnL
-$83.11
Record
53%
1927-1731 (3658)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$35
PnL
-$2.8
Record
60%
11624-7600 (19224)
Invested
$25.17
Value
—
PnL
-$25.17
Record
54%
9773-8307 (18080)
Invested
$10.72
Value
—
PnL
-$10.72
Record
55%
23018-18619 (41637)
Invested
$18.45
Value
$15
PnL
-$3.45
Record
67%
51803-25680 (77483)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$20.26
PnL
+$4.46
Record
57%
64885-49078 (113963)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$6.08
PnL
+$0.97
Record
51%
14010-13336 (27346)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$9.04
PnL
+$3.71
Record
65%
19843-10779 (30622)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3576-2779 (6355)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
wzbbb
Down — $942.77
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $194.52
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $149.46
FairValueMachine
Down — $157.85
dvasdkasodk
Down — $91.58
PBot-6
Down — $152.38
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $19