Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$175.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,351

Combined PnL+$131.26

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,130

Combined PnL-$306.55

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 91.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$29.82	56% 7105-5492 (12597)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 22.2¢	$181.4	—	-$181.4	57% 64885-49078 (113963)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$318.1	$323.55	+$5.45	49% 4690-4844 (9534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$243.33	$323.55	+$80.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$74.76	—	-$74.76
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$283.54	$329.3	+$45.77	56% 11914-9199 (21113)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.5¢	$225.42	$329.3	+$103.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$58.12	—	-$58.12
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 93¢	$160	$100	-$60	55% 8093-6557 (14650)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$67	—	-$67
└ Down leg	Downavg 93¢	$93	$100	+$7
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 85.3¢	$172.12	$169.49	-$2.63	55% 6845-5601 (12446)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.3¢	$144.54	$169.49	+$24.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.4¢	$27.58	—	-$27.58
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$145.29	$140.3	-$4.99	62% 27936-17377 (45313)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$36.46	—	-$36.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$108.83	$140.3	+$31.47
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$126.53	$94.72	-$31.76	60% 11624-7600 (19224)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$46.81	—	-$48.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.7¢	$78.29	$94.72	+$16.43
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50.7¢	$110.55	$214.14	+$103.6	59% 36681-25997 (62678)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$113.04	$110.16	-$2.89	67% 51803-25680 (77483)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.4¢	$88.53	$110.16	+$21.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$24.52	—	-$24.52
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 97¢	$83.4	$60	-$23.4	54% 9773-8307 (18080)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$25.2	—	-$25.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 97¢	$58.2	$60	+$1.8
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 4.2¢	$9.66	—	-$9.66	52% 87102-81310 (168412)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 85¢	$63.43	$39.33	-$24.1	55% 23018-18619 (41637)
TH thismonthCTR<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$50	—	-$50	41% 556-814 (1370)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$41.12	—	-$41.12	58% 58504-42650 (101154)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$58.91	$60	+$1.09	65% 19843-10779 (30622)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 43¢	$25.3	$30	+$4.7	56% 16429-13163 (29592)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 75¢	$18.75	$25	+$6.25	57% 9836-7351 (17187)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.97	—	-$10.97	67% 22329-11156 (33485)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.2	$20	+$9.8	56% 47363-37932 (85295)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$9.4	$9.49	+$0.09	93% 21574-1680 (23254)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$13.4	—	-$13.4	53% 1927-1731 (3658)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3576-2779 (6355)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	52% 17120-15945 (33065)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,923.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$29.82

Record

56%

7105-5492 (12597)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$181.4

Value

—

PnL

-$181.4

Record

57%

64885-49078 (113963)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$318.1

Value

$323.55

PnL

+$5.45

Record

49%

4690-4844 (9534)

Both legs:

Down$243.3375.2¢+$80.22

Up$74.7624¢-$74.76

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.54

Value

$329.3

PnL

+$45.77

Record

56%

11914-9199 (21113)

Both legs:

Down$225.4268.5¢+$103.88

Up$58.1235.9¢-$58.12

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160

Value

$100

PnL

-$60

Record

55%

8093-6557 (14650)

Both legs:

Up$6728.6¢-$67

Down$9393¢+$7

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.12

Value

$169.49

PnL

-$2.63

Record

55%

6845-5601 (12446)

Both legs:

Down$144.5485.3¢+$24.95

Up$27.5818.4¢-$27.58

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.29

Value

$140.3

PnL

-$4.99

Record

62%

27936-17377 (45313)

Both legs:

Up$36.4626.1¢-$36.46

Down$108.8377.6¢+$31.47

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$126.53

Value

$94.72

PnL

-$31.76

Record

60%

11624-7600 (19224)

Both legs:

Up$46.8128.6¢-$48.2

Down$78.2982.7¢+$16.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$110.55

Value

$214.14

PnL

+$103.6

Record

59%

36681-25997 (62678)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.04

Value

$110.16

PnL

-$2.89

Record

67%

51803-25680 (77483)

Both legs:

Down$88.5380.4¢+$21.63

Up$24.5223.3¢-$24.52

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$23.4

Record

54%

9773-8307 (18080)

Both legs:

Up$25.221¢-$25.2

Down$58.297¢+$1.8

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

—

PnL

-$9.66

Record

52%

87102-81310 (168412)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$63.43

Value

$39.33

PnL

-$24.1

Record

55%

23018-18619 (41637)

thismonthCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

—

PnL

-$50

Record

41%

556-814 (1370)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$41.12

Value

—

PnL

-$41.12

Record

58%

58504-42650 (101154)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$58.91

Value

$60

PnL

+$1.09

Record

65%

19843-10779 (30622)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$25.3

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.7

Record

56%

16429-13163 (29592)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$18.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

57%

9836-7351 (17187)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

—

PnL

-$10.97

Record

67%

22329-11156 (33485)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.8

Record

56%

47363-37932 (85295)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.49

PnL

+$0.09

Record

93%

21574-1680 (23254)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

—

PnL

-$13.4

Record

53%

1927-1731 (3658)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3576-2779 (6355)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

17120-15945 (33065)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x60c7e40f...2d5b30

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793020500

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $2.0K

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.63

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.99

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $214.14

std0

Arbitrage — excluded