Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$595.98

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,676

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,577

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Up — 52%Down — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.69	93% 21534-1676 (23210)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 52.2¢	$747.39	$1.4K	+$618.08	59% 36626-25967 (62593)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.5¢	$840.53	$917.58	+$77.05	49% 4683-4838 (9521)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$791.57	$736.63	-$54.94	56% 11899-9189 (21088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$471.26	—	-$471.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$320.31	$736.63	+$416.32
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Downavg 59.8¢	$421.51	—	-$421.51	62% 27920-17364 (45284)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$284.85	$320.27	+$35.42	51% 14010-13336 (27346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$183.16	—	-$183.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.8¢	$101.69	$320.27	+$218.58
machinelearned	Upavg 31.1¢	$140.37	$306.28	+$165.91	55% 8081-6546 (14627)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 27.7¢	$248.25	$650.36	+$402.11	57% 64862-49061 (113923)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.7¢	$180	$650.36	+$470.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$68.25	—	-$68.25
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$339.1	$403.52	+$64.42	60% 11616-7594 (19210)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$141.56	—	-$141.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$197.53	$403.52	+$205.99
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 47.1¢	$357.93	—	-$357.93	55% 6836-5597 (12433)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 69.2¢	$207.56	—	-$207.56	51% 18897-18110 (37007)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$200.86	—	-$200.86	52% 86873-81238 (168111)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 29.4¢	$201.66	—	-$201.66	78% 9127-2632 (11759)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 58.3¢	$144.84	—	-$144.84	57% 9826-7347 (17173)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$137.95	$170.55	+$32.6	54% 9706-8245 (17951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$57.33	—	-$57.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$80.63	$170.55	+$89.92
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$186.43	$221.83	+$35.4	55% 23010-18615 (41625)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$166.02	$221.83	+$55.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$20.42	—	-$20.42
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$78.34	—	-$56.85	66% 117132-61537 (178669)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 51¢	$97.48	$191.14	+$93.66	58% 49097-35254 (84351)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 37.5¢	$50	$133.32	+$83.32	58% 11878-8503 (20381)
ST std0CTR<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$54.63	—	-$54.63	70% 48395-20945 (69340)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 34.2¢	$45.35	$69.54	+$24.19	56% 16419-13148 (29567)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.2¢	$23.75	$69.54	+$45.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$21.6	—	-$21.6
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$29.3	—	-$29.3	58% 11674-8538 (20212)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 43¢	$29.15	$39.56	+$10.41	65% 19783-10760 (30543)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$16.95	—	-$16.95	65% 3679-1950 (5629)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 35¢	$11.16	$31.85	+$20.69	64% 39156-22299 (61455)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,652.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.69

Record

93%

21534-1676 (23210)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$747.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$618.08

Record

59%

36626-25967 (62593)

ply-pm0

Invested

$840.53

Value

$917.58

PnL

+$77.05

Record

49%

4683-4838 (9521)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$791.57

Value

$736.63

PnL

-$54.94

Record

56%

11899-9189 (21088)

Both legs:

Down$471.2660.5¢-$471.26

Up$320.3143.5¢+$416.32

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Down

Invested

$421.51

Value

—

PnL

-$421.51

Record

62%

27920-17364 (45284)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$284.85

Value

$320.27

PnL

+$35.42

Record

51%

14010-13336 (27346)

Both legs:

Down$183.1649.3¢-$183.16

Up$101.6931.8¢+$218.58

machinelearned

Invested

$140.37

Value

$306.28

PnL

+$165.91

Record

55%

8081-6546 (14627)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$248.25

Value

$650.36

PnL

+$402.11

Record

57%

64862-49061 (113923)

Both legs:

Up$18027.7¢+$470.36

Down$68.2564.4¢-$68.25

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$339.1

Value

$403.52

PnL

+$64.42

Record

60%

11616-7594 (19210)

Both legs:

Down$141.5661.3¢-$141.56

Up$197.5349¢+$205.99

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$357.93

Value

—

PnL

-$357.93

Record

55%

6836-5597 (12433)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$207.56

Value

—

PnL

-$207.56

Record

51%

18897-18110 (37007)

dvasdkasodkCTR

Down

Invested

$200.86

Value

—

PnL

-$200.86

Record

52%

86873-81238 (168111)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$201.66

Value

—

PnL

-$201.66

Record

78%

9127-2632 (11759)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$144.84

Value

—

PnL

-$144.84

Record

57%

9826-7347 (17173)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$137.95

Value

$170.55

PnL

+$32.6

Record

54%

9706-8245 (17951)

Both legs:

Down$57.3367.5¢-$57.33

Up$80.6347.3¢+$89.92

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$186.43

Value

$221.83

PnL

+$35.4

Record

55%

23010-18615 (41625)

Both legs:

Up$166.0274.8¢+$55.81

Down$20.4240.9¢-$20.42

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.34

Value

—

PnL

-$56.85

Record

66%

117132-61537 (178669)

PBot-6

Invested

$97.48

Value

$191.14

PnL

+$93.66

Record

58%

49097-35254 (84351)

wowitsamazing

Invested

$50

Value

$133.32

PnL

+$83.32

Record

58%

11878-8503 (20381)

std0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54.63

Value

—

PnL

-$54.63

Record

70%

48395-20945 (69340)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$69.54

PnL

+$24.19

Record

56%

16419-13148 (29567)

Both legs:

Up$23.7534.2¢+$45.79

Down$21.669.8¢-$21.6

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.3

Value

—

PnL

-$29.3

Record

58%

11674-8538 (20212)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$39.56

PnL

+$10.41

Record

65%

19783-10760 (30543)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.95

Value

—

PnL

-$16.95

Record

65%

3679-1950 (5629)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$11.16

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$20.69

Record

64%

39156-22299 (61455)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd6462073...8b8098

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793019900

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$16.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.4K

+$618.08

ply-pm0

Up — $917.58

+$77.05

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$54.94

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $306.28

+$165.91

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$402.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$64.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Down — $0

-$357.93

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