Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$8.5K
$228.18
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$4.28 | 84% 43982-8667 (52649) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$44.37 | 93% 21534-1676 (23210) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 95.9¢ | $491.84 | $502.33 | +$10.49 | 54% 9706-8245 (17951) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.8¢ | $589.12 | $831.82 | +$242.7 | 57% 64862-49061 (113923) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 90¢ | $91 | $100 | +$9 | 51% 14010-13336 (27346) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 85.7¢ | $86.22 | $100.62 | +$14.4 | 55% 6836-5597 (12433) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $69.39 | $82.39 | +$13 | 55% 8081-6546 (14627) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 96.1¢ | $58.73 | $59.86 | +$1.13 | 66% 117132-61537 (178669) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $69.84 | — | -$69.84 | 56% 16419-13148 (29567) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $46.3 | $27.56 | -$18.74 | 62% 27920-17364 (45284) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.2¢ | $20.79 | — | -$20.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.6¢ | $25.51 | $27.56 | +$2.05 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $46.63 | $35.64 | -$10.99 | 49% 4683-4838 (9521) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.7¢ | $26.61 | $35.64 | +$9.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.4¢ | $20.01 | — | -$20.01 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $47.79 | $47.51 | -$0.28 | 52% 86873-81238 (168111) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $54.7 | $31.47 | -$23.23 | 59% 16116-11138 (27254) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $32.78 | $27.35 | -$5.42 | 60% 11616-7594 (19210) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $27.4 | $30 | +$2.6 | 70% 48395-20945 (69340) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $25.43 | $20.85 | -$4.58 | 56% 11899-9189 (21088) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 1¢ | $138.87 | — | +$1.56 | 51% 18897-18110 (37007) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 55% 23010-18615 (41625) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3556-2770 (6326) |
Invested
$4,275.36
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$4.28
Record
84%
43982-8667 (52649)
Invested
$2,318.01
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$44.37
Record
93%
21534-1676 (23210)
Invested
$491.84
Value
$502.33
PnL
+$10.49
Record
54%
9706-8245 (17951)
Invested
$589.12
Value
$831.82
PnL
+$242.7
Record
57%
64862-49061 (113923)
Invested
$91
Value
$100
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
14010-13336 (27346)
Invested
$86.22
Value
$100.62
PnL
+$14.4
Record
55%
6836-5597 (12433)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$69.39
Value
$82.39
PnL
+$13
Record
55%
8081-6546 (14627)
Invested
$58.73
Value
$59.86
PnL
+$1.13
Record
66%
117132-61537 (178669)
Invested
$69.84
Value
—
PnL
-$69.84
Record
56%
16419-13148 (29567)
Invested
$46.3
Value
$27.56
PnL
-$18.74
Record
62%
27920-17364 (45284)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.63
Value
$35.64
PnL
-$10.99
Record
49%
4683-4838 (9521)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.79
Value
$47.51
PnL
-$0.28
Record
52%
86873-81238 (168111)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$54.7
Value
$31.47
PnL
-$23.23
Record
59%
16116-11138 (27254)
Invested
$32.78
Value
$27.35
PnL
-$5.42
Record
60%
11616-7594 (19210)
Invested
$27.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.6
Record
70%
48395-20945 (69340)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$25.43
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$4.58
Record
56%
11899-9189 (21088)
Invested
$138.87
Value
—
PnL
+$1.56
Record
51%
18897-18110 (37007)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
55%
23010-18615 (41625)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3556-2770 (6326)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.3K
hoodquant
Down — $2.4K
thesidehustle
Down — $502.33
uninformedfloww
Down — $831.82
gansinimen
Down — $100
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $100.62
machinelearned
Down — $82.39
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $59.86
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
ARBArbitrage — excluded