Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$142.28

Smart Money Signal

29 of 33 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares9,702

Combined PnL+$165.9

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares652

Combined PnL-$23.61

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$37.29	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$26.46	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 90.6¢	$1.0K	$937.36	-$73.02	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 87.3¢	$381.82	$427.73	+$46.41	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 95.6¢	$410.89	$377.42	-$33.47	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.7¢	$311.6	$319	+$7.4	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 85.8¢	$266.82	$298.25	+$31.43	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
SP spartacray	Upavg 89.1¢	$246.74	$268.33	+$21.59	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
ST std0	Upavg 90.1¢	$247.31	$252.07	+$4.76	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
machinelearned	Upavg 82.4¢	$221.68	$247.48	+$25.8	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 91.3¢	$226.11	$193	-$33.11	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$173.32	$159.47	-$13.86	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$116.51	$159.47	+$42.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.4¢	$56.81	—	-$56.81
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 92.4¢	$168.37	$136	-$32.37	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$91.55	$93.23	+$1.67	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$97.5	$100	+$2.5	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 88¢	$88	$100	+$12	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$61.78	$52.95	-$8.83	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$53.53	$53	-$0.45	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 95¢	$50.91	$44.32	-$6.59	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 48¢	$47.52	$99	+$51.48	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 96¢	$48	$50	+$2	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$39.88	$45.64	+$5.75	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 93¢	$41.63	$44.76	+$3.13	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$15	—	-$15	75% 2709-900 (3609)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$28.51	$34.03	+$5.52	79% 29830-7781 (37611)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,692.16

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$37.29

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,660.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$26.46

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,010.38

Value

$937.36

PnL

-$73.02

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$381.82

Value

$427.73

PnL

+$46.41

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

wzbbb

Invested

$410.89

Value

$377.42

PnL

-$33.47

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$311.6

Value

$319

PnL

+$7.4

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$266.82

Value

$298.25

PnL

+$31.43

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

spartacray

Invested

$246.74

Value

$268.33

PnL

+$21.59

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

std0

Invested

$247.31

Value

$252.07

PnL

+$4.76

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

machinelearned

Invested

$221.68

Value

$247.48

PnL

+$25.8

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$226.11

Value

$193

PnL

-$33.11

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$173.32

Value

$159.47

PnL

-$13.86

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$116.5173.1¢+$42.95

Down$56.8120.4¢-$56.81

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$168.37

Value

$136

PnL

-$32.37

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$91.55

Value

$93.23

PnL

+$1.67

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$97.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

gansinimen

Invested

$88

Value

$100

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$61.78

Value

$52.95

PnL

-$8.83

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$53.53

Value

$53

PnL

-$0.45

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$50.91

Value

$44.32

PnL

-$6.59

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$47.52

Value

$99

PnL

+$51.48

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$50

PnL

+$2

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$45.64

PnL

+$5.75

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$41.63

Value

$44.76

PnL

+$3.13

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

Vega7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

75%

2709-900 (3609)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$28.51

Value

$34.03

PnL

+$5.52

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

Smart Money Signal

29 of 33 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x58da8e00...12bc27

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793007300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.7K

+$37.29

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$26.46

CrouchPredictions

Up — $937.36

-$73.02

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $427.73

+$46.41

wzbbb

Up — $377.42

-$33.47

MayorMamdani

Up — $319

+$7.4

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $298.25

+$31.43

spartacray

Up — $268.33

+$21.59

std0

Up — $252.07

+$4.76

machinelearned

Up — $247.48

+$25.8

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