Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$194.14

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares12,005

Combined PnL+$259.88

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares953

Combined PnL-$65.74

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$8.7K	$8.7K	+$8.68	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.7¢	$419.19	$429.26	+$10.07	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 66.9¢	$480.28	$389.65	-$90.62	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$390.44	$399.5	+$9.06	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$279.54	$399.5	+$119.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$110.91	—	-$110.91
ST std0	Downavg 82¢	$330.5	$334.71	+$4.21	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 85.9¢	$284.46	$304.8	+$20.34	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 90.9¢	$276.32	$304.05	+$27.73	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.1¢	$251.99	$275	+$23.01	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
SP spartacray	Downavg 86.6¢	$204.76	$232.11	+$27.34	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
machinelearned	Downavg 84.6¢	$175.05	$201.16	+$26.11	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 93¢	$251.1	$270	+$18.9	49% 379-391 (770)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 28.6¢	$92.13	$64.98	-$27.15	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$47.19	—	-$47.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$44.93	$64.98	+$20.04
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$67.53	$90	+$112.47	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$83.82	$86.29	+$2.92	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 66.4¢	$92.99	$139.98	+$46.99	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 69¢	$65.26	$60	-$5.26	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$61.4	$49.19	-$12.22	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 82.8¢	$42.64	$51.47	+$8.83	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 5.3¢	$46.01	—	-$46.01	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$34.45	$35.89	+$1.44	59% 20563-14137 (34700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.8¢	$10.01	—	-$10.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$24.44	$35.89	+$11.45
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 64¢	$45.03	$70.36	+$25.33	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$18.33	$23.39	+$5.06	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 81¢	$15.23	$15	-$0.03	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2.7¢	$8.5	—	-$8.5	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.7	—	-$1.7	66% 98923-50543 (149466)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,670.16

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$8.68

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$419.19

Value

$429.26

PnL

+$10.07

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$480.28

Value

$389.65

PnL

-$90.62

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$390.44

Value

$399.5

PnL

+$9.06

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$279.5470¢+$119.96

Up$110.9129.7¢-$110.91

std0

Down

Invested

$330.5

Value

$334.71

PnL

+$4.21

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$284.46

Value

$304.8

PnL

+$20.34

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$276.32

Value

$304.05

PnL

+$27.73

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$251.99

Value

$275

PnL

+$23.01

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$204.76

Value

$232.11

PnL

+$27.34

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$175.05

Value

$201.16

PnL

+$26.11

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$251.1

Value

$270

PnL

+$18.9

Record

49%

379-391 (770)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$92.13

Value

$64.98

PnL

-$27.15

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$47.1928.6¢-$47.19

Down$44.9369.2¢+$20.04

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$67.53

Value

$90

PnL

+$112.47

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$83.82

Value

$86.29

PnL

+$2.92

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$92.99

Value

$139.98

PnL

+$46.99

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$65.26

Value

$60

PnL

-$5.26

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$61.4

Value

$49.19

PnL

-$12.22

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$42.64

Value

$51.47

PnL

+$8.83

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$46.01

Value

—

PnL

-$46.01

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$34.45

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$1.44

Record

59%

20563-14137 (34700)

Both legs:

Up$10.0116.8¢-$10.01

Down$24.4468.1¢+$11.45

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$45.03

Value

$70.36

PnL

+$25.33

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.33

Value

$23.39

PnL

+$5.06

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.03

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

—

PnL

-$8.5

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7ae6c885...ca2067

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793007000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $8.7K

+$8.68

hoodquant

Down — $429.26

+$10.07

CrouchPredictions

Down — $389.65

-$90.62

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$9.06

std0

Down — $334.71

+$4.21

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $304.8

+$20.34

MayorMamdani

Down — $304.05

+$27.73

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $275

+$23.01

spartacray

Down — $232.11

+$27.34

machinelearned

Down — $201.16

+$26.11

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