Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$565.37

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,916

Combined PnL+$650.13

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$84.76

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 85.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$77.14	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$1.3K	$253	$-1.0K	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$131.1	$253	+$121.9
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.4¢	$620.04	$619.57	-$0.47	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$386.34	$619.57	+$233.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$233.7	—	-$233.7
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$430.96	$499.97	+$69.01	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$322.97	$499.97	+$176.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$107.99	—	-$107.99
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$213.71	$354.88	+$141.17	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$176.94	$354.88	+$177.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.6¢	$36.77	—	-$36.77
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 54.6¢	$381.72	$698.61	+$316.89	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
machinelearned	Upavg 80.8¢	$348.4	$410.22	+$61.82	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$195.4	$211.48	+$16.09	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$136.45	$211.48	+$75.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.1¢	$58.95	—	-$58.95
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	$208.43	$151.01	-$57.42	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.2¢	$109	$151.01	+$42.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$99.44	—	-$99.44
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 69.2¢	$173.1	$219.99	+$46.89	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87¢	$30.89	$29	-$1.89	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 85.1¢	$163.85	$153.57	-$10.28	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.1¢	$130.72	$153.57	+$22.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.7¢	$33.13	—	-$33.13
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 75.1¢	$129.07	$171.84	+$42.77	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$93.63	$114.1	+$20.47	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$69.1	$114.1	+$45
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$24.53	—	-$24.53
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$111.26	$93	-$18.26	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$60.39	$93	+$32.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.1¢	$50.87	—	-$50.87
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$54.37	$63.6	+$9.23	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$2.24	—	-$2.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$52.13	$63.6	+$11.47
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$75.24	$76	+$0.76	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$67.36	$63.75	-$3.61	59% 20563-14137 (34700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$36.26	$63.75	+$27.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.9¢	$31.1	—	-$31.1
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 60¢	$51.17	$60.57	+$9.4	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$35.8	$46.82	+$11.02	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$22.74	$46.82	+$24.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.6¢	$13.06	—	-$13.06
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$57.95	$69.13	+$11.18	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78¢	$46.26	$59.34	+$13.08	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 86¢	$46.64	$54.23	+$7.59	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 51¢	$41.82	$82	+$40.18	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$26.26	—	-$26.26	68% 94633-44122 (138755)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,832.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$77.14

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,277.66

Value

$253

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Both legs:

Down$1,146.5639.1¢$-1.1K

Up$131.151.8¢+$121.9

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$620.04

Value

$619.57

PnL

-$0.47

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$386.3462.4¢+$233.23

Down$233.735.1¢-$233.7

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$430.96

Value

$499.97

PnL

+$69.01

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

Both legs:

Up$322.9764.6¢+$176.99

Down$107.9927¢-$107.99

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$213.71

Value

$354.88

PnL

+$141.17

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Up$176.9449.9¢+$177.94

Down$36.774.6¢-$36.77

Bonereaper

Invested

$381.72

Value

$698.61

PnL

+$316.89

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

machinelearned

Invested

$348.4

Value

$410.22

PnL

+$61.82

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$195.4

Value

$211.48

PnL

+$16.09

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Up$136.4564.5¢+$75.04

Down$58.9525.1¢-$58.95

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$208.43

Value

$151.01

PnL

-$57.42

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$10972.2¢+$42.01

Down$99.4431¢-$99.44

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$173.1

Value

$219.99

PnL

+$46.89

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$29

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$163.85

Value

$153.57

PnL

-$10.28

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

Both legs:

Up$130.7285.1¢+$22.85

Down$33.1316.7¢-$33.13

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$129.07

Value

$171.84

PnL

+$42.77

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$93.63

Value

$114.1

PnL

+$20.47

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Both legs:

Up$69.160.6¢+$45

Down$24.5322.6¢-$24.53

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$111.26

Value

$93

PnL

-$18.26

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Up$60.3964.9¢+$32.61

Down$50.8731.1¢-$50.87

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$54.37

Value

$63.6

PnL

+$9.23

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Both legs:

Down$2.241¢-$2.24

Up$52.1382¢+$11.47

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$75.24

Value

$76

PnL

+$0.76

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$67.36

Value

$63.75

PnL

-$3.61

Record

59%

20563-14137 (34700)

Both legs:

Up$36.2656.9¢+$27.49

Down$31.134.9¢-$31.1

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$51.17

Value

$60.57

PnL

+$9.4

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$35.8

Value

$46.82

PnL

+$11.02

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Up$22.7448.6¢+$24.08

Down$13.0614.6¢-$13.06

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$57.95

Value

$69.13

PnL

+$11.18

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$46.26

Value

$59.34

PnL

+$13.08

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$46.64

Value

$54.23

PnL

+$7.59

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$41.82

Value

$82

PnL

+$40.18

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.26

Value

—

PnL

-$26.26

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xeda065e5...c04aa5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793006700

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $1.9K

+$77.14

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.0K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $698.61

+$316.89

machinelearned

Up — $410.22

+$61.82

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $219.99

+$46.89

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