Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$410.44

Smart Money Signal

28 of 33 top traders (85%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,904

Combined PnL+$527

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL-$116.56

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.7¢	$466.77	$547.59	+$80.83	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$529.8	$547.69	+$17.89	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.1¢	$422.39	$547.69	+$125.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$107.41	—	-$107.41
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 81.4¢	$289.5	$317.62	+$28.12	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
ST std0	Upavg 85.4¢	$269.07	$259.99	-$9.08	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 63¢	$307.17	$487.21	+$180.04	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 83.5¢	$239.84	$243.63	+$3.79	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.1¢	$217.93	$204.15	-$13.78	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 81.3¢	$188.84	$195.7	+$6.86	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
SP spartacray	Upavg 76.3¢	$182.2	$204.35	+$22.15	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 25.4¢	$185.39	$102.12	-$83.27	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$100.69	—	-$100.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.9¢	$84.7	$102.12	+$17.42
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 78¢	$173.57	$191.43	+$17.86	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 74.3¢	$133	$166.68	+$33.68	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 76.6¢	$141.35	$160	+$18.65	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 78.5¢	$163.03	$207.77	+$44.74	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$81.98	$99.98	+$17.99	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$72.98	$99.98	+$26.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 9¢	$9	—	-$9
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$97.32	$99.6	+$2.28	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$89.02	$88	-$1.02	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$65.12	$88	+$22.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.5¢	$23.9	—	-$23.9
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$95.76	$95.25	-$0.51	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 89.8¢	$98.61	$109.78	+$11.17	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.9¢	$63.9	$79.99	+$16.09	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$38.33	$28.43	-$9.9	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$17.87	—	-$17.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$20.47	$28.43	+$7.96
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$46.84	—	-$46.84	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$41.02	$86.51	+$45.49	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$38	$47.13	+$9.13	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$35.66	$44.85	+$9.19	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$466.77

Value

$547.59

PnL

+$80.83

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$529.8

Value

$547.69

PnL

+$17.89

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$422.3977.1¢+$125.3

Down$107.4124.7¢-$107.41

thesidehustle

Invested

$289.5

Value

$317.62

PnL

+$28.12

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

std0

Invested

$269.07

Value

$259.99

PnL

-$9.08

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

Bonereaper

Invested

$307.17

Value

$487.21

PnL

+$180.04

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$239.84

Value

$243.63

PnL

+$3.79

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$217.93

Value

$204.15

PnL

-$13.78

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$188.84

Value

$195.7

PnL

+$6.86

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

spartacray

Invested

$182.2

Value

$204.35

PnL

+$22.15

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.39

Value

$102.12

PnL

-$83.27

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Down$100.6925.4¢-$100.69

Up$84.782.9¢+$17.42

GoodFallen

Invested

$173.57

Value

$191.43

PnL

+$17.86

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$133

Value

$166.68

PnL

+$33.68

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$141.35

Value

$160

PnL

+$18.65

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$163.03

Value

$207.77

PnL

+$44.74

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$81.98

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$17.99

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

Both legs:

Up$72.9873¢+$26.99

Down$99¢-$9

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$97.32

Value

$99.6

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$89.02

Value

$88

PnL

-$1.02

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Up$65.1274¢+$22.88

Down$23.913.5¢-$23.9

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$95.76

Value

$95.25

PnL

-$0.51

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$98.61

Value

$109.78

PnL

+$11.17

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$63.9

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$16.09

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

$28.43

PnL

-$9.9

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

Both legs:

Down$17.8717¢-$17.87

Up$20.4772¢+$7.96

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.84

Value

—

PnL

-$46.84

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$41.02

Value

$86.51

PnL

+$45.49

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$47.13

PnL

+$9.13

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$35.66

Value

$44.85

PnL

+$9.19

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 33 top traders (85%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x11ee2446...d67927

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793006400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $547.59

+$80.83

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.89

thesidehustle

Up — $317.62

+$28.12

std0

Up — $259.99

-$9.08

Bonereaper

Up — $487.21

+$180.04

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $243.63

+$3.79

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $204.15

-$13.78

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $195.7

+$6.86

spartacray

Up — $204.35

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded