Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$107.86

Smart Money Signal

28 of 35 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares13,578

Combined PnL+$355.33

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,319

Combined PnL-$463.19

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.3¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$31.29	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$24.35	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$15.5	60% 19605-12902 (32507)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 87.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$24.79	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 78.3¢	$757.17	$735.21	-$21.96	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
pspspsps5	Upavg 99¢	$525.71	$525.2	-$0.51	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 62.2¢	$375.5	$434.2	+$58.7	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$332.64	$336	+$3.36	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 99¢	$297	$300	+$3	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 83.6¢	$252.54	$234.42	-$18.12	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50.5¢	$212.73	—	-$212.73	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 62.7¢	$115.8	$180	+$64.2	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.3¢	$172.61	$153.42	-$19.19	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64.2¢	$120.97	$167.18	+$46.2	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
ohioism	Upavg 75¢	$112.64	$150.19	+$37.55	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 90.4¢	$109.84	$103.49	-$6.35	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
ST std0	Upavg 93.7¢	$110.71	$104.99	-$5.72	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 49.2¢	$91.04	$175	+$83.96	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$76.06	$79.98	+$3.91	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 32.7¢	$136.77	—	-$136.77	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$55.58	$57.93	+$2.35	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$69.11	$79.25	+$10.15	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 97.2¢	$58.61	$58.63	+$0.02	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 41¢	$55.5	$40	-$15.5	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$28.7	—	-$28.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$26.8	$40	+$13.2
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 9.1¢	$23.01	—	-$23.01	50% 68021-68968 (136989)

0x50f7

Invested

$4,185.31

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$31.29

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,410.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.35

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

THG.

Invested

$1,534.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.5

Record

60%

19605-12902 (32507)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,348.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$24.79

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$757.17

Value

$735.21

PnL

-$21.96

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

pspspsps5

Invested

$525.71

Value

$525.2

PnL

-$0.51

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$375.5

Value

$434.2

PnL

+$58.7

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$332.64

Value

$336

PnL

+$3.36

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$297

Value

$300

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$252.54

Value

$234.42

PnL

-$18.12

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$212.73

Value

—

PnL

-$212.73

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

thesidehustle

Invested

$115.8

Value

$180

PnL

+$64.2

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

GoodFallen

Invested

$172.61

Value

$153.42

PnL

-$19.19

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$120.97

Value

$167.18

PnL

+$46.2

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

ohioism

Invested

$112.64

Value

$150.19

PnL

+$37.55

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$109.84

Value

$103.49

PnL

-$6.35

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

std0

Invested

$110.71

Value

$104.99

PnL

-$5.72

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

Bonereaper

Invested

$91.04

Value

$175

PnL

+$83.96

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$76.06

Value

$79.98

PnL

+$3.91

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$136.77

Value

—

PnL

-$136.77

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$55.58

Value

$57.93

PnL

+$2.35

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$69.11

Value

$79.25

PnL

+$10.15

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$58.61

Value

$58.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.5

Value

$40

PnL

-$15.5

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Both legs:

Down$28.741¢-$28.7

Up$26.867¢+$13.2

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.01

Value

—

PnL

-$23.01

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 35 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9bd71818...c8fe41

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793006100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $4.2K

+$31.29

hoodquant

Up — $2.4K

+$24.35

THG.

Up — $1.6K

+$15.5

wzbbb

Up — $1.4K

+$24.79

CrouchPredictions

Up — $735.21

-$21.96

pspspsps5

Up — $525.2

-$0.51

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $434.2

+$58.7

MayorMamdani

Up — $336

+$3.36

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $234.42

-$18.12

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