Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$279.39

Smart Money Signal

22 of 30 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares6,994

Combined PnL+$73.19

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,620

Combined PnL-$352.58

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$2.84	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 91.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$28.77	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 88.9¢	$1.0K	$951.32	-$58.94	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96¢	$340.62	$354.81	+$14.19	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 88.4¢	$306.9	$314.51	+$7.6	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$296.18	$272.55	-$23.63	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$203.21	$272.55	+$69.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$92.97	—	-$92.97
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR	Downavg 34¢	$164.55	—	-$164.55	54% 212-177 (389)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 87.5¢	$130.16	$148.69	+$18.53	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 88¢	$130.75	$148.58	+$17.83	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
SP spartacray	Upavg 89.1¢	$133.38	$132.69	-$0.69	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$92.24	—	-$92.24	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 92.8¢	$93.9	$92.5	-$1.4	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 90¢	$91.5	$88	-$3.5	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$70.72	$80	+$9.28	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 20.3¢	$72.32	$45.35	-$26.97	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$39.9	—	-$39.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$32.42	$45.35	+$12.93
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 66¢	$42.71	$50	+$7.29	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 91¢	$57.22	$61.01	+$4.59	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$39.85	$59.24	+$19.38	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$30.13	$24.61	-$5.52	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 85.8¢	$34.5	$40.19	+$5.69	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 23.6¢	$27.88	—	-$27.88	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$19.9	$26.34	+$6.44	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$18.42	—	-$18.42	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 95¢	$19	$20	+$1	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89¢	$14.24	$16	+$1.76	62% 14221-8902 (23123)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,837.75

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$2.84

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,511.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$28.77

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,010.26

Value

$951.32

PnL

-$58.94

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

hoodquant

Invested

$340.62

Value

$354.81

PnL

+$14.19

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

thesidehustle

Invested

$306.9

Value

$314.51

PnL

+$7.6

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$296.18

Value

$272.55

PnL

-$23.63

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$203.2174.6¢+$69.34

Down$92.9722.6¢-$92.97

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR

Down

Invested

$164.55

Value

—

PnL

-$164.55

Record

54%

212-177 (389)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$130.16

Value

$148.69

PnL

+$18.53

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

gansinimen

Invested

$130.75

Value

$148.58

PnL

+$17.83

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

spartacray

Invested

$133.38

Value

$132.69

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92.24

Value

—

PnL

-$92.24

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$93.9

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$91.5

Value

$88

PnL

-$3.5

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$70.72

Value

$80

PnL

+$9.28

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$72.32

Value

$45.35

PnL

-$26.97

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$39.920.3¢-$39.9

Up$32.4271.5¢+$12.93

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$42.71

Value

$50

PnL

+$7.29

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$57.22

Value

$61.01

PnL

+$4.59

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$39.85

Value

$59.24

PnL

+$19.38

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

std0<$100

Invested

$30.13

Value

$24.61

PnL

-$5.52

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$40.19

PnL

+$5.69

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.88

Value

—

PnL

-$27.88

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$26.34

PnL

+$6.44

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.42

Value

—

PnL

-$18.42

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$20

PnL

+$1

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$16

PnL

+$1.76

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 30 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1d972629...d57492

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793005500

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $2.8K

+$2.84

wzbbb

Up — $1.5K

+$28.77

CrouchPredictions

Up — $951.32

-$58.94

hoodquant

Up — $354.81

+$14.19

thesidehustle

Up — $314.51

+$7.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.63

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793

CTR

Down — $0

-$164.55

uninformedfloww

Up — $148.69

+$18.53

gansinimen

Up — $148.58

+$17.83

spartacray

Up — $132.69

-$0.69

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