Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

-$187.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares32,943

Combined PnL+$231.63

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,509

Combined PnL-$419.21

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Sharky6999	Downavg 99.9¢	$25.0K	$25.0K	+$25	98% 6262-143 (6405)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$27.37	60% 19605-12902 (32507)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$2.15	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.6¢	$729.96	$756	+$26.04	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 89.9¢	$780.94	$675.87	-$105.08	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 68.4¢	$492.16	$456.28	-$35.88	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 92.4¢	$336.58	$349.86	+$13.27	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65.4¢	$233.32	$342.43	+$109.11	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.5¢	$220.62	—	-$220.62	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
SP spartacray	Downavg 75.7¢	$135.75	$159.99	+$24.24	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 46¢	$132.28	—	-$132.28	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 74.2¢	$117.24	$140.68	+$23.44	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
machinelearned	Downavg 91.8¢	$158.91	$124.99	-$33.92	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$122.76	$128.69	+$5.93	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.8¢	$83.38	$128.69	+$45.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$39.39	—	-$39.39
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 70.3¢	$99.28	$139.01	+$39.73	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
ST std0	Downavg 94.6¢	$108.57	$102	-$6.57	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 90¢	$91	$100	+$9	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$75.59	$88	+$12.41	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79¢	$63.2	$79.99	+$16.8	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 80¢	$49.11	$54.67	+$5.56	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$52.8	$55	+$2.2	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 55¢	$55.81	$101.47	+$45.66	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 5.1¢	$18.02	—	-$18.02	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$31.97	$44.04	+$12.07	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$30.05	—	-$30.05	58% 11584-8476 (20060)

Sharky6999

Down

Invested

$24,978

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

98%

6262-143 (6405)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,709.63

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$27.37

Record

60%

19605-12902 (32507)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,363.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.15

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$729.96

Value

$756

PnL

+$26.04

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$780.94

Value

$675.87

PnL

-$105.08

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$492.16

Value

$456.28

PnL

-$35.88

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$336.58

Value

$349.86

PnL

+$13.27

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$233.32

Value

$342.43

PnL

+$109.11

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$220.62

Value

—

PnL

-$220.62

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$135.75

Value

$159.99

PnL

+$24.24

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$132.28

Value

—

PnL

-$132.28

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$117.24

Value

$140.68

PnL

+$23.44

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$158.91

Value

$124.99

PnL

-$33.92

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.76

Value

$128.69

PnL

+$5.93

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$83.3864.8¢+$45.31

Up$39.3932.6¢-$39.39

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$99.28

Value

$139.01

PnL

+$39.73

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

std0

Down

Invested

$108.57

Value

$102

PnL

-$6.57

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$91

Value

$100

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$75.59

Value

$88

PnL

+$12.41

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$63.2

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$16.8

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$49.11

Value

$54.67

PnL

+$5.56

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$52.8

Value

$55

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$55.81

Value

$101.47

PnL

+$45.66

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$18.02

Value

—

PnL

-$18.02

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$31.97

Value

$44.04

PnL

+$12.07

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$30.05

Value

—

PnL

-$30.05

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x54b731d5...c1eb41

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793005200

Traders in this Market

Sharky6999

Down — $25.0K

+$25

THG.

Down — $2.7K

+$27.37

wzbbb

Down — $1.4K

-$2.15

hoodquant

Down — $756

+$26.04

CrouchPredictions

Down — $675.87

-$105.08

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $456.28

-$35.88

thesidehustle

Down — $349.86

+$13.27

FairValueMachine

Down — $342.43

+$109.11

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$220.62

spartacray

Down — $159.99

+$24.24

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