Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$21.98

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 23 top traders (78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares12,790

Combined PnL+$587.15

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,322

Combined PnL-$565.17

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 89.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$129.78	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$859.5	$777.69	-$81.81	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$463.01	$777.69	+$314.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$396.49	—	-$396.49
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 42.3¢	$522.83	—	-$522.83	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.7¢	$221.77	$292.02	+$70.25	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 40.2¢	$275.3	$214.2	-$61.1	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$124.7	$214.2	+$89.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$150.6	—	-$150.6
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$196.7	$211.31	+$14.61	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$144.97	$211.31	+$66.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$51.73	—	-$51.73
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 66.8¢	$115.11	$161.67	+$46.56	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 86¢	$155.65	$120	-$35.65	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86¢	$103.2	$120	+$16.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.3¢	$52.45	—	-$52.45
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 57.6¢	$87.53	$130.65	+$43.12	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 55.4¢	$72.77	$131.34	+$58.57	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
SP spartacray	Downavg 50.3¢	$68.39	$120	+$51.61	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$85.04	$57	-$28.04	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$52.79	—	-$52.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$32.25	$57	+$24.75
GA gansinimen	Downavg 84¢	$85	$100	+$15	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$101.25	$124.21	+$22.96	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$70.8	$124.21	+$53.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$30.45	—	-$30.45
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 74.2¢	$82.32	$110.99	+$28.67	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$90.2	$91.28	+$1.08	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 54¢	$86.94	$161	+$74.06	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$65.97	$75	+$9.03	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$54	$52	-$2	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 81¢	$40.5	$50	+$9.5	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$50.36	$66.4	+$16.04	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 83¢	$33.2	$40	+$6.8	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$28.42	—	-$28.42	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$17.67	$34.65	+$16.98	59% 44281-30660 (74941)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,997.01

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,017.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$129.78

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$859.5

Value

$777.69

PnL

-$81.81

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$463.0159.5¢+$314.68

Up$396.4941.2¢-$396.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$522.83

Value

—

PnL

-$522.83

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$221.77

Value

$292.02

PnL

+$70.25

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$275.3

Value

$214.2

PnL

-$61.1

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$124.758.2¢+$89.5

Up$150.640.2¢-$150.6

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.7

Value

$211.31

PnL

+$14.61

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

Both legs:

Down$144.9768.6¢+$66.34

Up$51.7320.2¢-$51.73

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$115.11

Value

$161.67

PnL

+$46.56

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.65

Value

$120

PnL

-$35.65

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Both legs:

Down$103.286¢+$16.8

Up$52.4526.3¢-$52.45

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$87.53

Value

$130.65

PnL

+$43.12

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$72.77

Value

$131.34

PnL

+$58.57

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$68.39

Value

$120

PnL

+$51.61

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$85.04

Value

$57

PnL

-$28.04

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Up$52.7936.4¢-$52.79

Down$32.2556.6¢+$24.75

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$85

Value

$100

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$101.25

Value

$124.21

PnL

+$22.96

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.32

Value

$110.99

PnL

+$28.67

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$90.2

Value

$91.28

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$86.94

Value

$161

PnL

+$74.06

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$65.97

Value

$75

PnL

+$9.03

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$54

Value

$52

PnL

-$2

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$40.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$9.5

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$50.36

Value

$66.4

PnL

+$16.04

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$33.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$6.8

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$28.42

Value

—

PnL

-$28.42

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$17.67

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$16.98

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 23 top traders (78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9d519ef...7b65b4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793004900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$9.01

wzbbb

Down — $2.1K

+$129.78

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$81.81

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$522.83

CrouchPredictions

Down — $292.02

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $161.67

+$46.56

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.65

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $130.65

+$43.12

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