Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$194.17

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 25 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,501

Combined PnL+$165.46

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL-$359.63

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$51.99	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$503.58	$490.44	-$13.14	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$365.69	$490.44	+$124.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$137.89	—	-$137.89
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$365.93	$344.6	-$21.34	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$226.41	$344.6	+$118.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$139.52	—	-$139.52
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.5¢	$175.14	$200	+$24.86	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$168.02	$156.09	-$11.93	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.4¢	$130.14	$156.09	+$25.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.6¢	$37.88	—	-$37.88
SP spartacray	Downavg 73.3¢	$135.43	$153.73	+$18.3	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$164.85	$128.95	-$35.9	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.5¢	$94.76	$128.95	+$34.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$70.1	—	-$70.1
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$148.34	$73.19	-$75.16	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$101.29	—	-$101.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$47.06	$73.19	+$26.13
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$126.42	—	-$126.42	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$116.9	—	-$116.9	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.3¢	$101.19	$148.38	+$47.19	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
ohioism	Downavg 75¢	$114.14	$152.19	+$38.05	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 75¢	$112.56	$150.08	+$37.52	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$107.77	$88	-$18.52	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$59.84	$88	+$28.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.6¢	$46.2	—	-$46.68
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$81.99	$89.49	+$7.5	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.2¢	$65.36	$109.65	+$44.29	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 84¢	$77.93	$78.2	+$0.27	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75¢	$77.1	$91.2	+$14.1	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$66.38	$58.57	-$7.82	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$46.37	$36.64	-$9.72	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$24.68	—	-$24.68	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83¢	$17.1	$20	+$2.9	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$22.9	—	-$22.9	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$13.8	—	-$13.8	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$11.52	—	-$11.52	14% 16230-96920 (113150)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,265.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$51.99

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$503.58

Value

$490.44

PnL

-$13.14

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Down$365.6974.6¢+$124.76

Up$137.8924¢-$137.89

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$365.93

Value

$344.6

PnL

-$21.34

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$226.4165.7¢+$118.18

Up$139.5232.4¢-$139.52

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$175.14

Value

$200

PnL

+$24.86

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.02

Value

$156.09

PnL

-$11.93

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

Both legs:

Down$130.1483.4¢+$25.95

Up$37.8821.6¢-$37.88

spartacray

Down

Invested

$135.43

Value

$153.73

PnL

+$18.3

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$164.85

Value

$128.95

PnL

-$35.9

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Down$94.7673.5¢+$34.19

Up$70.136¢-$70.1

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$148.34

Value

$73.19

PnL

-$75.16

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$101.2924.2¢-$101.29

Down$47.0664.3¢+$26.13

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$126.42

Value

—

PnL

-$126.42

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$116.9

Value

—

PnL

-$116.9

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$101.19

Value

$148.38

PnL

+$47.19

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$114.14

Value

$152.19

PnL

+$38.05

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$112.56

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$37.52

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.77

Value

$88

PnL

-$18.52

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.99

Value

$89.49

PnL

+$7.5

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$65.36

Value

$109.65

PnL

+$44.29

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$77.93

Value

$78.2

PnL

+$0.27

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$77.1

Value

$91.2

PnL

+$14.1

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$66.38

Value

$58.57

PnL

-$7.82

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$46.37

Value

$36.64

PnL

-$9.72

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$24.68

Value

—

PnL

-$24.68

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.9

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$22.9

Value

—

PnL

-$22.9

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

—

PnL

-$13.8

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

—

PnL

-$11.52

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 25 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x09e28d4e...6a5dd5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793004600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $200

+$24.86

std0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.93

spartacray

Down — $153.73

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0