Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$776.86

Smart Money Signal

12 of 27 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,939

Combined PnL+$428.75

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,760

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 84.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$73.41	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$5.52	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$668.39	$1.3K	+$678.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$683.71	—	-$683.71
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 46.4¢	$454.04	$543.13	+$89.09	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$252.12	$543.13	+$291.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$201.92	—	-$201.92
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 27.2¢	$381.74	—	-$381.74	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$299.55	$249.42	-$50.13	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$162.65	$249.42	+$86.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$136.9	—	-$136.9
SE seeeeeebCTR	Downavg 56¢	$151.2	—	-$151.2	49% 379-391 (770)
ST std0	Upavg 58.3¢	$211.21	$215.32	+$4.11	69% 45182-19837 (65019)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$222.53	$163.3	-$59.23	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$134.69	—	-$134.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$87.84	$163.3	+$75.46
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 67.5¢	$135.18	—	-$135.18	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 66.3¢	$116.12	—	-$116.12	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 65.6¢	$117.88	$147.13	+$29.24	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$88.49	$84.55	-$3.94	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$63.13	—	-$63.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$25.36	$84.55	+$59.19
machinelearned	Upavg 44.3¢	$89.21	$119.36	+$30.15	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 56.7¢	$125.89	$109	-$14.79	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 63.6¢	$89.32	$105.89	+$16.57	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 38¢	$74.08	$194.82	+$120.74	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 41.5¢	$71.44	$172.32	+$100.88	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 32.2¢	$101.8	—	-$101.8	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$83.69	—	-$83.69	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 28.1¢	$73.3	—	-$73.3	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 62¢	$62.03	—	-$62.03	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$41.01	$45	+$3.99	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$40.57	$59.23	+$18.66	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 60.9¢	$38.37	—	-$38.37	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 8.1¢	$26.63	—	-$26.63	50% 68021-68968 (136989)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,636.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$73.41

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,352.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$5.52

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$668.3949.6¢+$678.19

Down$683.7150¢-$683.71

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$454.04

Value

$543.13

PnL

+$89.09

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$252.1246.4¢+$291.01

Down$201.9251.6¢-$201.92

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$381.74

Value

—

PnL

-$381.74

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$299.55

Value

$249.42

PnL

-$50.13

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Both legs:

Up$162.6565.2¢+$86.77

Down$136.961.4¢-$136.9

seeeeeebCTR

Down

Invested

$151.2

Value

—

PnL

-$151.2

Record

49%

379-391 (770)

std0

Invested

$211.21

Value

$215.32

PnL

+$4.11

Record

69%

45182-19837 (65019)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$222.53

Value

$163.3

PnL

-$59.23

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Down$134.6956.2¢-$134.69

Up$87.8453.8¢+$75.46

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$135.18

Value

—

PnL

-$135.18

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$116.12

Value

—

PnL

-$116.12

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$117.88

Value

$147.13

PnL

+$29.24

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.49

Value

$84.55

PnL

-$3.94

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Down$63.1339.4¢-$63.13

Up$25.3630¢+$59.19

machinelearned

Invested

$89.21

Value

$119.36

PnL

+$30.15

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$125.89

Value

$109

PnL

-$14.79

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$89.32

Value

$105.89

PnL

+$16.57

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$74.08

Value

$194.82

PnL

+$120.74

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Bonereaper

Invested

$71.44

Value

$172.32

PnL

+$100.88

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$101.8

Value

—

PnL

-$101.8

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.69

Value

—

PnL

-$83.69

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.3

Value

—

PnL

-$73.3

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.03

Value

—

PnL

-$62.03

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$41.01

Value

$45

PnL

+$3.99

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$40.57

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$18.66

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.37

Value

—

PnL

-$38.37

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.63

Value

—

PnL

-$26.63

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 27 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xac5ae219...2403d2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793004300

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Up — $1.7K

+$73.41

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

seeeeeeb

Down — $0

std0

Up — $215.32

+$4.11

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$59.23

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0