Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$308.1

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,992

Combined PnL-$937.04

Up16 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL+$628.94

Down — 24%Up — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR	Downavg 53¢	$869.03	—	-$869.03	54% 212-177 (389)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$628.46	$581.13	-$47.33	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.7¢	$410.76	$581.13	+$170.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$217.71	—	-$217.71
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 83.6¢	$653.39	$555.63	-$97.76	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.6¢	$464.26	$555.63	+$91.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.4¢	$189.13	—	-$189.13
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$256.56	$429.31	+$172.76	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$241.77	$429.31	+$187.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 2.6¢	$14.79	—	-$14.79
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$318.62	$345.02	+$26.4	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.9¢	$248.17	$345.02	+$96.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$70.44	—	-$70.44
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 87.2¢	$341.25	$391.25	+$50	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 50.8¢	$280.25	$551.41	+$271.16	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$205.17	$226.32	+$21.15	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.1¢	$185.8	$226.32	+$40.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.6¢	$19.37	—	-$19.37
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$166.76	$185.64	+$18.88	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.5¢	$145.66	$185.64	+$39.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.3¢	$21.1	—	-$21.1
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.6¢	$116.36	$193.3	+$76.94	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 47.6¢	$151.85	$294.1	+$142.25	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$180.98	$159.97	-$21.01	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.3¢	$110.94	$159.97	+$49.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$70.05	—	-$70.05
FairValueMachine	Upavg 77.9¢	$160.04	$164.55	+$4.52	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 82¢	$164.27	$200.33	+$36.05	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 89.2¢	$134.07	$146.81	+$12.74	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$103.87	$109.97	+$6.1	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.1¢	$79.28	$109.97	+$30.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.1¢	$24.59	—	-$24.59
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$93.49	$110	+$16.51	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.1¢	$79.3	$110	+$30.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.7¢	$14.19	—	-$14.19
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 17.5¢	$56.84	—	-$56.84	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 76.6¢	$91.98	$115.29	+$23.31	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$55.47	$44.33	-$11.14	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.1¢	$23.11	—	-$23.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$32.36	$44.33	+$11.97
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 89.2¢	$34	$19.67	-$14.33	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.3¢	$55.89	$67.45	+$11.56	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 84¢	$24.29	$27.5	+$3.21	60% 9512-6329 (15841)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$25.5	$30.04	+$4.54	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 87¢	$26.1	$30	+$3.9	90% 64816-7021 (71837)

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR

Down

Invested

$869.03

Value

—

PnL

-$869.03

Record

54%

212-177 (389)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$628.46

Value

$581.13

PnL

-$47.33

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$410.7670.7¢+$170.38

Down$217.7124.8¢-$217.71

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$653.39

Value

$555.63

PnL

-$97.76

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$464.2683.6¢+$91.36

Down$189.1326.4¢-$189.13

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$256.56

Value

$429.31

PnL

+$172.76

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Up$241.7756.3¢+$187.54

Down$14.792.6¢-$14.79

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$318.62

Value

$345.02

PnL

+$26.4

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$248.1771.9¢+$96.85

Down$70.4427.3¢-$70.44

uninformedfloww

Invested

$341.25

Value

$391.25

PnL

+$50

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Bonereaper

Invested

$280.25

Value

$551.41

PnL

+$271.16

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$205.17

Value

$226.32

PnL

+$21.15

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Both legs:

Up$185.882.1¢+$40.52

Down$19.3712.6¢-$19.37

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$166.76

Value

$185.64

PnL

+$18.88

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Up$145.6678.5¢+$39.98

Down$21.113.3¢-$21.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$116.36

Value

$193.3

PnL

+$76.94

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

PBot-6

Invested

$151.85

Value

$294.1

PnL

+$142.25

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$180.98

Value

$159.97

PnL

-$21.01

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Both legs:

Up$110.9469.3¢+$49.03

Down$70.0545.6¢-$70.05

FairValueMachine

Invested

$160.04

Value

$164.55

PnL

+$4.52

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$164.27

Value

$200.33

PnL

+$36.05

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$134.07

Value

$146.81

PnL

+$12.74

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$103.87

Value

$109.97

PnL

+$6.1

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Up$79.2872.1¢+$30.69

Down$24.5921.1¢-$24.59

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$93.49

Value

$110

PnL

+$16.51

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

Both legs:

Up$79.372.1¢+$30.7

Down$14.1912.7¢-$14.19

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.84

Value

—

PnL

-$56.84

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$91.98

Value

$115.29

PnL

+$23.31

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$55.47

Value

$44.33

PnL

-$11.14

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Both legs:

Down$23.1115.1¢-$23.11

Up$32.3673¢+$11.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$19.67

PnL

-$14.33

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$55.89

Value

$67.45

PnL

+$11.56

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$24.29

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$3.21

Record

60%

9512-6329 (15841)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$30.04

PnL

+$4.54

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.9

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb8d320b7...3fa513

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793004000

Traders in this Market

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793

CTR

Down — $0

-$869.03

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $391.25

+$50

Bonereaper

Up — $551.41

+$271.16

spartacray

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$21.15

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.88

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $193.3

+$76.94

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