Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$27.64

Smart Money Signal

15 of 23 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,572

Combined PnL+$396.25

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,349

Combined PnL-$368.61

Up — 65%Down — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61¢	$761.72	$902.11	+$140.39	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 80.2¢	$652.52	$768.18	+$115.66	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.9¢	$316.89	$245.38	-$71.5	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.9¢	$166.7	$245.38	+$78.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.4¢	$150.19	—	-$150.19
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$225.76	$323.13	+$97.37	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.6¢	$189.33	$323.13	+$133.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$36.43	—	-$36.43
SP spartacray	Upavg 77.4¢	$189.46	$211.1	+$21.64	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 86.9¢	$153.8	$121.38	-$32.42	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$91.04	$67.13	-$23.9	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$68.88	—	-$68.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$22.15	$67.13	+$44.98
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$92.76	$94.26	+$1.5	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$88.23	—	-$88.23	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 36.1¢	$58.47	$162	+$103.53	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 11¢	$162.76	—	-$162.76	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 53.1¢	$65.1	$101.48	+$36.38	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$80.3	—	-$80.3	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 79¢	$49.5	$50	+$0.5	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 86.9¢	$58.31	$52.59	-$0.73	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 92¢	$37.4	$40.65	+$3.25	60% 9512-6329 (15841)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 86¢	$28.57	$21	-$7.57	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$23.6	$29.86	+$6.26	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 66¢	$18.53	—	-$18.53	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$2.63	—	-$2.63	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11.9¢	$10.62	—	-$10.62	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 56¢	$10	$17.85	+$7.85	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$3.04	—	-$3.04	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 6.9¢	$7.15	—	-$2.51	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3553-2765 (6318)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$761.72

Value

$902.11

PnL

+$140.39

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

wzbbb

Invested

$652.52

Value

$768.18

PnL

+$115.66

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$316.89

Value

$245.38

PnL

-$71.5

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Up$166.767.9¢+$78.69

Down$150.1922.4¢-$150.19

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$225.76

Value

$323.13

PnL

+$97.37

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$189.3358.6¢+$133.8

Down$36.4336.3¢-$36.43

spartacray

Invested

$189.46

Value

$211.1

PnL

+$21.64

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

thesidehustle

Invested

$153.8

Value

$121.38

PnL

-$32.42

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.04

Value

$67.13

PnL

-$23.9

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Both legs:

Down$68.8840.8¢-$68.88

Up$22.1533¢+$44.98

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$92.76

Value

$94.26

PnL

+$1.5

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$88.23

Value

—

PnL

-$88.23

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Bonereaper

Invested

$58.47

Value

$162

PnL

+$103.53

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$162.76

Value

—

PnL

-$162.76

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$65.1

Value

$101.48

PnL

+$36.38

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.3

Value

—

PnL

-$80.3

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$58.31

Value

$52.59

PnL

-$0.73

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$37.4

Value

$40.65

PnL

+$3.25

Record

60%

9512-6329 (15841)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

$21

PnL

-$7.57

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$29.86

PnL

+$6.26

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.53

Value

—

PnL

-$18.53

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.63

Value

—

PnL

-$2.63

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.62

Value

—

PnL

-$10.62

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$7.85

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.04

Value

—

PnL

-$3.04

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.15

Value

—

PnL

-$2.51

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3553-2765 (6318)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 23 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1b3b53c5...bf554f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793003700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $902.11

+$140.39

wzbbb

Up — $768.18

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Up — $211.1

+$21.64

thesidehustle

Up — $121.38

-$32.42

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.9

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $94.26

+$1.5

EZTRADENL2

CTR

Down — $0

-$88.23

Bonereaper

Up — $162

+$103.53

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