Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$410.67

Smart Money Signal

13 of 24 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,949

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up13 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,212

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down — 46%Up — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$382.53	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$949.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$566.94	—	-$566.94
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 47.3¢	$984.63	—	-$984.63	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$876.49	$885.34	+$8.85	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$715.58	$771.68	+$56.1	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$433.55	$771.68	+$338.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$282.03	—	-$282.03
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 49.1¢	$636.2	$1.3K	+$658.8	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 34¢	$563.49	$506.17	-$57.32	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$294.14	—	-$294.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$269.35	$506.17	+$236.82
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$502.36	$516.96	+$14.6	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$253.76	$516.96	+$263.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$248.6	—	-$248.6
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$398.83	$347.17	-$51.65	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$195.6	$347.17	+$151.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$203.23	—	-$203.23
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$222.26	$234.07	+$11.81	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$123.95	$234.07	+$110.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$98.31	—	-$98.31
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Downavg 52.1¢	$171.35	—	-$171.35	50% 79-79 (158)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 60.5¢	$153.92	$232.87	+$78.95	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 63¢	$189	$300	+$111	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$111.92	$126.67	+$14.74	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$78.97	$126.67	+$47.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.3¢	$32.96	—	-$32.96
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$168.19	$127.39	-$40.8	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.6¢	$110.54	—	-$110.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$57.65	$127.39	+$69.74
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$134.85	$135	+$0.15	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.6¢	$110.1	$135	+$24.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$24.75	—	-$24.75
SP spartacray	Upavg 64¢	$94.55	$122.33	+$27.78	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 31.1¢	$84.76	—	-$84.76	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$80.74	—	-$80.74	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$53.42	$61.71	+$8.28	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$31.5	—	-$31.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$21.92	$61.71	+$39.79
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$50.5	—	-$50.5	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 53.2¢	$59.22	$111.29	+$52.07	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$41.13	$58.96	+$17.83	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 25.8¢	$25.87	—	-$25.87	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 58¢	$39.21	$67.61	+$28.4	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$16.53	—	-$16.53	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,707.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$382.53

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$1,140.9954.6¢+$949.48

Down$566.9442¢-$566.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$984.63

Value

—

PnL

-$984.63

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

hoodquant

Invested

$876.49

Value

$885.34

PnL

+$8.85

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$715.58

Value

$771.68

PnL

+$56.1

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$433.5556.2¢+$338.12

Down$282.0344.6¢-$282.03

Bonereaper

Invested

$636.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$658.8

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$563.49

Value

$506.17

PnL

-$57.32

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Down$294.1434¢-$294.14

Up$269.3553.2¢+$236.82

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$502.36

Value

$516.96

PnL

+$14.6

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$253.7649.1¢+$263.2

Down$248.633.1¢-$248.6

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$398.83

Value

$347.17

PnL

-$51.65

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Up$195.656.3¢+$151.58

Down$203.2349.9¢-$203.23

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$222.26

Value

$234.07

PnL

+$11.81

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Up$123.9553¢+$110.12

Down$98.3146.7¢-$98.31

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Down

Invested

$171.35

Value

—

PnL

-$171.35

Record

50%

79-79 (158)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$153.92

Value

$232.87

PnL

+$78.95

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$189

Value

$300

PnL

+$111

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$111.92

Value

$126.67

PnL

+$14.74

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Both legs:

Up$78.9762.3¢+$47.7

Down$32.9617.3¢-$32.96

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.19

Value

$127.39

PnL

-$40.8

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Down$110.5469.6¢-$110.54

Up$57.6545.3¢+$69.74

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$134.85

Value

$135

PnL

+$0.15

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Both legs:

Up$110.181.6¢+$24.9

Down$24.7533¢-$24.75

spartacray

Invested

$94.55

Value

$122.33

PnL

+$27.78

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$84.76

Value

—

PnL

-$84.76

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.74

Value

—

PnL

-$80.74

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.42

Value

$61.71

PnL

+$8.28

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.5

Value

—

PnL

-$50.5

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$59.22

Value

$111.29

PnL

+$52.07

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$41.13

Value

$58.96

PnL

+$17.83

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.87

Value

—

PnL

-$25.87

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$39.21

Value

$67.61

PnL

+$28.4

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.53

Value

—

PnL

-$16.53

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 24 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x18f245c8...349fd5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793003400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$382.53

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$984.63

hoodquant

Up — $885.34

+$8.85

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$56.1

Bonereaper

Up — $1.3K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525

CTR

Down — $0

-$171.35

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