Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

21 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (72%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$62.58

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,966

Combined PnL+$90.12

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,401

Combined PnL-$27.54

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$41.01	60% 19605-12902 (32507)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 18.8¢	$891.27	$978.36	+$87.09	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.8¢	$982.56	$909.46	-$73.09	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 51¢	$917.64	$869.45	-$48.19	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 84.3¢	$693.77	$658.09	-$35.68	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$660.33	$650.32	-$10.01	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 76¢	$366.17	$455.57	+$89.4	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$398.52	$372.35	-$26.17	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$195.7	$289.46	+$93.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$202.82	$82.88	-$119.94
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 71.6¢	$280.4	$344.17	+$63.76	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
SP spartacray	Upavg 66.5¢	$252.23	$335.8	+$83.57	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 75.8¢	$235.65	$291.17	+$55.53	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 84.9¢	$206.51	$241.66	+$35.15	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
pspspsps5	Upavg 89.9¢	$209	$219.73	+$10.73	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 96.9¢	$204.45	$205.73	+$1.28	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 47¢	$248.39	$200.28	-$48.12	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$241.71	$181.16	-$60.55	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$118.8	$136.58	+$17.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$122.9	$44.58	-$78.32
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 64¢	$178.46	$139.49	-$38.97	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$76.08	$103.5	+$27.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$102.38	$35.99	-$66.39
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$199.96	$103.87	-$96.09	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$49.42	$53.92	+$4.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$150.54	$49.95	-$100.59
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$79.73	$95.9	+$16.17	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$90.41	$85.88	-$0.93	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$45.41	$43.53	-$1.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$42	$42.35	+$0.95
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$68.73	$85.73	+$17	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$80.21	$79.21	-$0.99	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 74¢	$79.36	$79.02	-$0.34	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$99.8	$68.6	-$31.2	60% 9512-6329 (15841)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 48.3¢	$118.4	$55.19	-$63.21	56% 34391-26783 (61174)

THG.

Invested

$2,706.66

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$41.01

Record

60%

19605-12902 (32507)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$891.27

Value

$978.36

PnL

+$87.09

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$982.56

Value

$909.46

PnL

-$73.09

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$917.64

Value

$869.45

PnL

-$48.19

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

wzbbb

Invested

$693.77

Value

$658.09

PnL

-$35.68

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

hoodquant

Invested

$660.33

Value

$650.32

PnL

-$10.01

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$366.17

Value

$455.57

PnL

+$89.4

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$398.52

Value

$372.35

PnL

-$26.17

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$195.752.4¢+$93.76

Up$202.8255.1¢-$119.94

thesidehustle

Invested

$280.4

Value

$344.17

PnL

+$63.76

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

spartacray

Invested

$252.23

Value

$335.8

PnL

+$83.57

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$235.65

Value

$291.17

PnL

+$55.53

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$206.51

Value

$241.66

PnL

+$35.15

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

pspspsps5

Invested

$209

Value

$219.73

PnL

+$10.73

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$204.45

Value

$205.73

PnL

+$1.28

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$248.39

Value

$200.28

PnL

-$48.12

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$241.71

Value

$181.16

PnL

-$60.55

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Down$118.867.4¢+$17.78

Up$122.962¢-$78.32

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$178.46

Value

$139.49

PnL

-$38.97

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Both legs:

Down$76.0857¢+$27.42

Up$102.3864¢-$66.39

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$199.96

Value

$103.87

PnL

-$96.09

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Down$49.4271¢+$4.5

Up$150.5467.8¢-$100.59

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$79.73

Value

$95.9

PnL

+$16.17

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$90.41

Value

$85.88

PnL

-$0.93

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Up$45.4141.2¢-$1.88

Down$4260¢+$0.95

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$68.73

Value

$85.73

PnL

+$17

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.21

Value

$79.21

PnL

-$0.99

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.36

Value

$79.02

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$99.8

Value

$68.6

PnL

-$31.2

Record

60%

9512-6329 (15841)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$118.4

Value

$55.19

PnL

-$63.21

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.