Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$4.93

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$597.66

Total Shares1,063

Combined PnL+$54.44

Up6 traders

Total Value$493.57

Total Shares810

Combined PnL-$49.51

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$927.85	$916.74	-$11.11	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$602.68	$549.37	-$53.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$325.16	$367.37	+$42.21
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$889.07	$775.47	-$113.6	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.4¢	$596.04	$476.5	-$119.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$293.04	$298.97	+$5.93
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$664.19	$653.42	-$10.77	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$343.5	$337.99	-$5.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$320.69	$315.43	-$5.26
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 39.7¢	$289.44	$357.72	+$68.28	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$316.96	$313.48	-$3.49	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$141.55	$160.22	+$18.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$175.41	$153.26	-$22.15
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$257.53	$262.61	+$5.09	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$138.13	$139.01	+$0.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$119.4	$123.6	+$4.2
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$246.16	$259.91	+$13.75	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$188.02	$185.76	-$2.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$58.14	$74.15	+$16.01
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 42.4¢	$169.68	$201.88	+$32.19	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$164.35	$158.7	-$5.65	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$100.87	$110.04	+$9.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$63.48	$48.67	-$14.82
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$160.84	$143.6	-$17.24	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$108.76	$86.51	-$22.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.2¢	$52.08	$57.09	+$5.01
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$184.09	$134.74	-$49.35	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$138.65	$94.26	-$44.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$45.44	$40.47	-$4.97
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$127.64	$126.83	-$0.81	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$96.12	$94.43	-$1.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$31.52	$32.4	+$0.88
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$167.88	$111.87	-$56.01	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$79.78	$87.88	+$8.09	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$115.67	$87.71	-$27.96	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$77.87	$61.05	-$16.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$37.8	$26.66	-$11.14
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$73.01	$76.71	+$3.71	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$43.56	$43.78	+$0.22	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 91¢	$71.28	$42.44	-$28.84	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$75.98	$42.41	-$33.57	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$35.32	$35.94	+$0.61	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$34.53	$34.27	-$0.27	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$7.2	$19.4	+$12.2	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$10.56	$13.7	+$3.14	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$9.84	$9.46	-$0.38	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 98¢	$10.89	$5.72	-$5.17	59% 16037-10985 (27022)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$927.85

Value

$916.74

PnL

-$11.11

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$602.6853.2¢-$53.32

Up$325.1645.6¢+$42.21

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$889.07

Value

$775.47

PnL

-$113.6

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Up$596.0464.4¢-$119.53

Down$293.0447.5¢+$5.93

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$664.19

Value

$653.42

PnL

-$10.77

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Up$343.552.3¢-$5.51

Down$320.6949.3¢-$5.26

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$289.44

Value

$357.72

PnL

+$68.28

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$316.96

Value

$313.48

PnL

-$3.49

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$141.5545.5¢+$18.66

Down$175.4155.5¢-$22.15

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$257.53

Value

$262.61

PnL

+$5.09

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Both legs:

Down$138.1348.2¢+$0.89

Up$119.449.7¢+$4.2

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$246.16

Value

$259.91

PnL

+$13.75

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Down$188.0249.1¢-$2.26

Up$58.1440.4¢+$16.01

Bonereaper

Invested

$169.68

Value

$201.88

PnL

+$32.19

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$164.35

Value

$158.7

PnL

-$5.65

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Up$100.8747.2¢+$9.17

Down$63.4863.3¢-$14.82

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$160.84

Value

$143.6

PnL

-$17.24

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Both legs:

Up$108.7664.7¢-$22.25

Down$52.0844.2¢+$5.01

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$184.09

Value

$134.74

PnL

-$49.35

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Up$138.6575.7¢-$44.38

Down$45.4454.5¢-$4.97

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.64

Value

$126.83

PnL

-$0.81

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Down$96.1267.7¢-$1.69

Up$31.5232.6¢+$0.88

MayorMamdani

Invested

$167.88

Value

$111.87

PnL

-$56.01

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$79.78

Value

$87.88

PnL

+$8.09

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$115.67

Value

$87.71

PnL

-$27.96

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Up$77.8765.7¢-$16.82

Down$37.868.8¢-$11.14

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.01

Value

$76.71

PnL

+$3.71

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$43.78

PnL

+$0.22

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$71.28

Value

$42.44

PnL

-$28.84

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.98

Value

$42.41

PnL

-$33.57

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.32

Value

$35.94

PnL

+$0.61

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.53

Value

$34.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$12.2

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$3.14

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$0.38

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$5.17

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.