Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Up (72%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$132.52

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,040

Combined PnL-$94.4

Down7 traders

Total Value$102.14

Total Shares836

Combined PnL-$38.12

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.7¢	$913.53	$890.77	-$22.76	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$471.22	$494.77	+$23.55	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$334.99	$356.84	+$21.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$136.23	$137.93	+$1.7
SP spartacray	Upavg 77.1¢	$302.35	$323.19	+$20.84	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.5¢	$239.67	$237.45	-$2.22	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 22.3¢	$170.38	$222.88	+$52.5	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.3¢	$112.86	$154.32	+$41.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$57.52	$68.56	+$11.04
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 91.1¢	$268.66	$217.98	-$50.68	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 84.3¢	$177.08	$176.18	-$0.9	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 85¢	$147.57	$159.87	+$12.31	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 79¢	$161.8	$140.29	-$21.51	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$124.43	$138.3	+$13.87	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$98.88	$107.72	+$8.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$25.55	$30.58	+$5.04
PB PBot-6	Upavg 52¢	$104.02	$101.02	-$3	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$70.6	$86.7	+$16.11	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$87.75	$70.35	-$17.4	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 97.3¢	$66.02	$61.7	-$4.32	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$57.26	$56.55	-$0.71	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 99¢	$49.27	$49.02	-$0.25	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$54.44	$45.64	-$8.8	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 95¢	$47.44	$34.71	-$12.73	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$26.58	$33.17	+$6.59	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$39.78	$31.8	-$7.98	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 39.8¢	$40	$31.65	-$8.34	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$24.66	$28.64	+$3.97	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$20.68	$26.31	+$5.63	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 34.9¢	$22.57	$20.53	-$2.05	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$7.5	$7.63	+$0.13	55% 42713-35269 (77982)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$913.53

Value

$890.77

PnL

-$22.76

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$471.22

Value

$494.77

PnL

+$23.55

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$334.9965.2¢+$21.85

Down$136.2330.1¢+$1.7

spartacray

Invested

$302.35

Value

$323.19

PnL

+$20.84

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$239.67

Value

$237.45

PnL

-$2.22

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.38

Value

$222.88

PnL

+$52.5

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Down$112.8622.3¢+$41.46

Up$57.5258.3¢+$11.04

thesidehustle

Invested

$268.66

Value

$217.98

PnL

-$50.68

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$177.08

Value

$176.18

PnL

-$0.9

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$147.57

Value

$159.87

PnL

+$12.31

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$161.8

Value

$140.29

PnL

-$21.51

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$124.43

Value

$138.3

PnL

+$13.87

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$98.8863.8¢+$8.83

Down$25.5525.5¢+$5.04

PBot-6

Invested

$104.02

Value

$101.02

PnL

-$3

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$70.6

Value

$86.7

PnL

+$16.11

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$87.75

Value

$70.35

PnL

-$17.4

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$66.02

Value

$61.7

PnL

-$4.32

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$57.26

Value

$56.55

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$49.27

Value

$49.02

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$54.44

Value

$45.64

PnL

-$8.8

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$47.44

Value

$34.71

PnL

-$12.73

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.58

Value

$33.17

PnL

+$6.59

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$31.8

PnL

-$7.98

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40

Value

$31.65

PnL

-$8.34

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$28.64

PnL

+$3.97

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$5.63

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.57

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$2.05

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

42713-35269 (77982)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.