Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$213.73

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 28 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,326

Combined PnL+$497.93

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,156

Combined PnL-$711.66

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 97.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$21.73	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$942.21	$951.73	+$9.52	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 36.8¢	$541.55	—	-$541.55	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.7¢	$316.1	$458.27	+$142.17	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 83.2¢	$377.92	$359.99	-$17.93	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$328.44	$454.93	+$126.49	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$266.7	$454.93	+$188.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$61.74	—	-$61.74
machinelearned	Downavg 88.9¢	$203.65	$215.69	+$12.05	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 87¢	$261	$300	+$39	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 91.1¢	$175.88	$162.4	-$13.48	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 43.4¢	$128.35	$296	+$167.65	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 88¢	$108.15	$118.8	+$10.65	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
SP spartacray	Downavg 79.4¢	$94.52	$115.86	+$21.34	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 51¢	$102.02	—	-$102.02	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$89.81	$94.15	+$5.54	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$82.29	$88	+$5.71	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.7¢	$71.68	$117.96	+$46.28	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 74¢	$65.12	$88	+$22.88	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$55.83	$83.8	+$27.97	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 76¢	$36.57	$48.13	+$11.56	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 28.6¢	$25.69	—	-$25.69	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$23.43	—	-$23.43	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 28.7¢	$17.2	—	-$17.2	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$31.6	$43.46	+$11.86	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$30.63	$42.21	+$11.58	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,734.74

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$21.73

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$942.21

Value

$951.73

PnL

+$9.52

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$541.55

Value

—

PnL

-$541.55

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$316.1

Value

$458.27

PnL

+$142.17

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$377.92

Value

$359.99

PnL

-$17.93

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$328.44

Value

$454.93

PnL

+$126.49

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$266.758.6¢+$188.23

Up$61.7433¢-$61.74

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$203.65

Value

$215.69

PnL

+$12.05

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$261

Value

$300

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$175.88

Value

$162.4

PnL

-$13.48

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$128.35

Value

$296

PnL

+$167.65

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$108.15

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$10.65

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$94.52

Value

$115.86

PnL

+$21.34

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$102.02

Value

—

PnL

-$102.02

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$89.81

Value

$94.15

PnL

+$5.54

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$82.29

Value

$88

PnL

+$5.71

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$71.68

Value

$117.96

PnL

+$46.28

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$65.12

Value

$88

PnL

+$22.88

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$55.83

Value

$83.8

PnL

+$27.97

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$36.57

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$11.56

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$25.69

Value

—

PnL

-$25.69

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$23.43

Value

—

PnL

-$23.43

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

—

PnL

-$17.2

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$31.6

Value

$43.46

PnL

+$11.86

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$30.63

Value

$42.21

PnL

+$11.58

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 28 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2cd5faed...1d4787

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793002200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$3.01

wzbbb

Down — $1.7K

-$21.73

hoodquant

Down — $951.73

+$9.52

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$541.55

CrouchPredictions

Down — $458.27

+$142.17

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $359.99

-$17.93

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$126.49

machinelearned

Down — $215.69

+$12.05

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$39

thesidehustle

Down — $162.4

-$13.48

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