Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$252.72

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 29 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,100

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,774

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 96.8¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$88.16	60% 19605-12902 (32507)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$57.74	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$721.09	$1.1K	+$404.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.7¢	$346.6	—	-$346.6
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$17.14	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.2¢	$752.49	$893.78	+$141.29	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 48.5¢	$590.19	$1.2K	+$627.74	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 93¢	$420.34	$451.8	+$31.46	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 71.5¢	$436.25	$396.36	-$39.9	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 88.2¢	$334.79	$363.02	+$28.23	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64.8¢	$259.54	$329.2	+$69.67	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 48.6¢	$267.17	—	-$267.17	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.6¢	$265.98	$257.83	-$8.16	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$223.51	$201.91	-$21.6	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$121.68	$201.91	+$80.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$101.82	—	-$101.82
machinelearned	Downavg 64¢	$157.47	$197.58	+$40.11	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
SP spartacray	Downavg 80.9¢	$169.78	$184.4	+$14.62	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 67.7¢	$136.1	$201.03	+$64.93	49% 379-391 (770)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$160.47	$116.94	-$43.53	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$82.7	$116.94	+$34.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$77.77	—	-$77.77
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 57.8¢	$134.73	$136.38	+$1.65	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 86.4¢	$171.97	$130.24	-$41.73	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 68.3¢	$114.23	$140.06	+$25.83	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 81.8¢	$142.9	$119.28	-$21.02	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 39.7¢	$134.4	$96.52	-$37.87	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$59.3	$96.52	+$37.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$75.1	—	-$75.1
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$90.13	$63	-$27.13	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$59.85	$63	+$3.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.3¢	$30.28	—	-$30.28
ohioism	Downavg 68¢	$68.03	$100.04	+$32.01	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$31.26	$42.68	+$11.42	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,637.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$88.16

Record

60%

19605-12902 (32507)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,067.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$57.74

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$721.0964.1¢+$404.33

Up$346.633.7¢-$346.6

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,123.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$17.14

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$752.49

Value

$893.78

PnL

+$141.29

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$1,074.05

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$590.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$627.74

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$420.34

Value

$451.8

PnL

+$31.46

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$436.25

Value

$396.36

PnL

-$39.9

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$334.79

Value

$363.02

PnL

+$28.23

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$259.54

Value

$329.2

PnL

+$69.67

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$267.17

Value

—

PnL

-$267.17

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$265.98

Value

$257.83

PnL

-$8.16

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$223.51

Value

$201.91

PnL

-$21.6

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$121.6860.3¢+$80.23

Up$101.8240.1¢-$101.82

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$157.47

Value

$197.58

PnL

+$40.11

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$169.78

Value

$184.4

PnL

+$14.62

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$136.1

Value

$201.03

PnL

+$64.93

Record

49%

379-391 (770)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.47

Value

$116.94

PnL

-$43.53

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Both legs:

Down$82.770.7¢+$34.24

Up$77.7737.6¢-$77.77

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$134.73

Value

$136.38

PnL

+$1.65

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$171.97

Value

$130.24

PnL

-$41.73

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$114.23

Value

$140.06

PnL

+$25.83

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$142.9

Value

$119.28

PnL

-$21.02

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$134.4

Value

$96.52

PnL

-$37.87

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

Both legs:

Down$59.361.4¢+$37.22

Up$75.139.7¢-$75.1

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.13

Value

$63

PnL

-$27.13

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.03

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$32.01

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.26

Value

$42.68

PnL

+$11.42

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 29 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd99b2b78...83b164

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793001900

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.7K

+$88.16

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$57.74

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$17.14

CrouchPredictions

Down — $893.78

+$141.29

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.1K

Bonereaper

Down — $1.2K

+$627.74

MayorMamdani

Down — $451.8

+$31.46

wzbbb

Down — $396.36

-$39.9

thesidehustle

Down — $363.02

+$28.23

FairValueMachine

Down — $329.2

+$69.67

Trade on Polymarket