Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$58.41

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,927

Combined PnL+$250.13

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares687

Combined PnL-$308.54

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.1¢	$552.41	$516.1	-$36.3	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 72.3¢	$316.69	$388.18	+$71.5	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$210.5	$243.1	+$32.6	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$102.4	—	-$102.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$108.1	$243.1	+$135
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$161.29	$158.13	-$3.15	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$91.92	$158.13	+$66.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$69.37	—	-$69.37
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 51.5¢	$154.52	—	-$154.52	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
pspspsps5	Downavg 96.6¢	$147.65	$152.85	+$5.2	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
machinelearned	Downavg 63.8¢	$98.08	$125.51	+$27.44	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 93.1¢	$126.59	$135.96	+$9.37	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 52.2¢	$118.53	—	-$118.53	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.3¢	$70.84	$107.57	+$36.73	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 47¢	$45.12	$69.93	+$24.81	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 50¢	$50	$100	+$50	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$57.65	$55.15	-$2.49	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$32.81	$55.15	+$22.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$24.84	—	-$24.84
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$77.19	$48.92	-$28.27	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$26.78	$48.92	+$22.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$50.42	—	-$50.42
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 65¢	$70.16	$60	-$10.16	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$42.16	$70.96	+$28.79	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$54.72	$57	+$2.28	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 93.2¢	$47.12	$49.16	+$2.04	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 52¢	$31.51	$44	+$12.49	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 47¢	$24.07	$50.02	+$25.95	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$13.8	—	-$13.8	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$8.57	—	-$8.57	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$6.11	—	-$6.11	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$3.65	—	-$3.65	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$3.36	—	-$3.36	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$552.41

Value

$516.1

PnL

-$36.3

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$316.69

Value

$388.18

PnL

+$71.5

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$210.5

Value

$243.1

PnL

+$32.6

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

Both legs:

Invested

$161.29

Value

$158.13

PnL

-$3.15

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$91.9258.1¢+$66.22

Up$69.3744.3¢-$69.37

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$154.52

Value

—

PnL

-$154.52

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$147.65

Value

$152.85

PnL

+$5.2

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$98.08

Value

$125.51

PnL

+$27.44

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$126.59

Value

$135.96

PnL

+$9.37

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$118.53

Value

—

PnL

-$118.53

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$70.84

Value

$107.57

PnL

+$36.73

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$45.12

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$24.81

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$100

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.65

Value

$55.15

PnL

-$2.49

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

Both legs:

Down$32.8159.5¢+$22.35

Up$24.8416¢-$24.84

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$77.19

Value

$48.92

PnL

-$28.27

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Down$26.7854.7¢+$22.14

Up$50.4233.2¢-$50.42

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$70.16

Value

$60

PnL

-$10.16

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$42.16

Value

$70.96

PnL

+$28.79

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$54.72

Value

$57

PnL

+$2.28

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$47.12

Value

$49.16

PnL

+$2.04

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$31.51

Value

$44

PnL

+$12.49

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$24.07

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$25.95

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

—

PnL

-$13.8

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$8.57

Value

—

PnL

-$8.57

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

—

PnL

-$6.11

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

—

PnL

-$3.65

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

—

PnL

-$3.36

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd2b5942e...9376b8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793001000

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $516.1

-$36.3

wzbbb

Down — $388.18

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$154.52

pspspsps5

Down — $152.85

+$5.2

machinelearned

Down — $125.51

+$27.44

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $135.96

+$9.37

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

-$118.53

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $107.57

+$36.73

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